After the disappointments of 2014, originally indicated as the possible turning point for the Eurozone economy but which ends for our country in full recession, prudence would advise anyone not to venture reckless forecasts for 2015.
It is true that in the year that is about to end, events have overlapped that it was not humanly possible to predict - from the oil shock to the crises in Russia and Ukraine, from the turning point between the USA and Cuba to the resurgence of terrorism led by the Caliphate and the so many wars and tensions that have swept through the Middle East – but the continuous downward corrections of growth and inflation estimates cannot be considered casual and oblige us not to hide our heads in the sand anymore. Since it is unthinkable that the cream of world economists – from those of the Monetary Fund to those of the World Bank, central banks and the OECD, not to mention the most accredited research centers – suddenly became enraged, the time has come to say, as Mario Deaglio acknowledges with great intellectual honesty in the recent Report on the global economy and on Italy of the Einaudi Center, that one of the most serious effects of the crisis is the now evident inadequacy of the theoretical models and interpretative tools that economists use to read reality.
To return to understanding the economy and to formulate reliable forecasts, new paradigms are needed, less faithfully focused on econometric models and on the prophetic virtues of algorithms and more open to reflections than history, politics, sociology, anthropology, demography and social sciences as a whole are suggesting that the crisis we are experiencing is not one of many but is the sign of an epochal transformation of contemporary capitalism, called to measure itself against variables - from globalization to the Internet and beyond - once unknown and that make the old interpretative schemes go crazy. It is somewhat the revenge of the origins of economic science which not by chance was born in the past centuries not from mathematics but from an offshoot of moral philosophy.
Despite the prudence advised by recent economic forecasting errors, at the end of 2014 we nevertheless seem to perceive some signs of hope which corroborate that old English proverb, rightly mentioned in the Einaudi Center Report, according to which even the darkest cloud always has an edge silver.
As the new year approaches, our silver border has above all two names: oil and dollar. The vertical collapse of the oil price, as observed by the wise vice president of the Fed, Stanley Fischer, is equivalent to a drastic and beneficial tax cut which, beyond its social and political effects, will push up consumption and consequently the domestic demand and growth. It has been calculated that, in the not far-fetched hypothesis that the price of crude oil could settle for the whole of 2015 at around 70 dollars a barrel, the advantage that the Italian GDP would derive from it would be approximately 0,4%, which will not be a lot but which is a bit like the windfall after so many months of stagnation or even recession. Then there is the dollar, which has already gained ground against the euro in the second half of 2014 thanks to the skilful management of Mario Draghi's monetary policy and which promises to rise even more when the Fed decides to raise US rates, with great relief of European and Italian exports.
It is true that the effects of the collapse of oil prices and the devaluation of the euro cannot be added together, but the estimates of those who believe that in 2015 the Italian economy, even without completely exiting the crisis and without returning to the levels of production and development in the first part of 2007, could be placed on a growth path of at least half a point of GDP but perhaps a few more decimal places.
Then, of course, there is the ECB and the political unknowns to deal with. Between January and March, Mario Draghi should finally give Europe the expected Quantitative easing, which will not be the cure-all for growth but which will cheer up the financial markets and help to spread not only more liquidity but above all confidence in Europe and Italy too, that precious and elusive asset that we have so far lacked and whose absence has stopped any attempt to restart in the bud.
The political unknown remains, for better or for worse. The election of the new President of the Italian Republic looms over the beginning of the new year and casts a shadow of uncertainty on the scenarios of the legislature and on the future of the Government. There are more than one candidates who legitimately aspire to the Quirinale but one thing is clear right now: that the new President cannot be a photocopy of that great president who is Giorgio Napolitano, because the political phase that will accompany him will be different. He should be neither the passive executor of the Government's plans nor its counterpart. He will have to be a guarantee figure and will have to have the intelligence to support the country's long transition towards a new institutional structure, facilitating the modernization that Italy needs like bread. The wider the political consensus it will gather, the better it will be, but it is better to ban taboos immediately because history tells us that it is possible to become excellent Heads of State without unanimity.
The only thing that is still not clear is whether all the political forces have really understood that in succession to Napolitano it is only necessary to choose the best President of the Republic and not a President for or against Prime Minister Matteo Renzi.
From the election of the new Head of State it will be understood what the future of the legislature and the Government will be, but it will also be understood whether Italy will finally reap the long-awaited dividend of the reforms.
Unfortunately, however, the unknowns do not end here but will accompany us until the very last days of the year and precisely until December 29th when Greece will let the world know if it has, in turn, been able to elect a new President of the Republic or if he will have to go to early elections in a climate of referendum for or against Europe. Moves that concern us very closely but that do not depend on us and with respect to which we just have to cross our fingers. Best wishes to all.
