The tension on the tariff front has not eased and the stock exchanges are preparing for the prospect of a sensational definitive break between the two superpowers pending the meeting in Washington between Donald Trump's collaborators and Chinese deputy prime minister Liu He. While waiting for the comparison, the Asian lists are starting to close in the red: Shanghai loses another 2%, bringing the drop of this black week to -8%. Things are no better in Hong Kong (-2%) and the Korean Kospi (-1,5%). Tokyo drops by 1,1%, while the race for the yen, the safe haven currency par excellence to the detriment of the yuan, is gaining strength, at a five-month low at 6,80, which is also weighed down by the alarming data on the trend in loans to economy and individuals: only 1.350 billion yuan in April, against a forecast of 300 billion more, confirming that the economic situation is worsening.
WSJ: FED PRESSURE FAVORS HAWKS IN BEIJING
Donald Trump's latest statements do not warrant optimism, even though the president's spokeswoman, Sarah Sanders, heartened Wall Street yesterday by declaring that, according to the White House, the Chinese delegation is willing to close an agreement. But a few hours later Trump returned to a rally to accuse Beijing of wanting to break and that "it will pay dearly" except to add that in the end everything will settle down. Beijing, much more sparing on words, limits itself to saying that if tomorrow the new 25% duties on exports to the USA come into force (already published in the official trade gazette), adequate countermeasures will be implemented.
According to the Wall Street Journal reconstruction, Xi's position changed after pressure from the White House on the Fed: the request to lower the cost of money was interpreted as a sign of weakness in the US economy. From then on, the negotiations would have stalled on a point considered fundamental by the Americans: what is established in the agreement must be translated into the legislation on the matter and retaliation must be foreseen, in case they are not respected.
LYFT THUD ON THE EVE OF UBER'S IPO
Hence the atmosphere of profound uncertainty at the opening of the European lists, while futures anticipate falls of more than half a point also for the S&P 500 index. Yesterday was an interlocutory session for the US stock exchanges: Dow Jones +0,01, 500%, S&P 0,16 -0,26%, Nasdaq -XNUMX%.
Worth noting is the new landslide of Lyft down 27% since its debut in March pending the launch of the Uber IPO.
Brent oil travels just below 70 dollars a barrel, down 0,8%. US strategic reserves fell 3,9 million barrels last week, expected +1,9 million barrels. Meanwhile, the decline in US oil exports continues.
At Piazza Affari Eni +0,2%. Saipem +1,4%. Credit Suisse initiates coverage of the oil services sector with a buy recommendation.
DRAGHI: THE ECB WILL ACHIEVE ITS OBJECTIVES
Recovery in the final yesterday for the European stock exchanges after a weak session, conditioned by the trend of the negotiations on tariffs. Beyond the match that the Old Continent is condemned to suffer, without having a say in the matter, there are problems (Italy and Brexit in the lead). But there are positive notes. Mario Draghi, in a conference yesterday in Frankfurt, affirmed that in Europe there are signs of a restart of inflation, for example on wage trends, a dynamic that will allow the central bank to approach or reach the objective of its mandate. Meanwhile, rumors from Brussels let it be known that the choice of the Roman banker's successor is destined to be postponed to early autumn. An eloquent sign of the divisions within the Eurozone which, paradoxically, strengthen Draghi who yesterday did not appear to be giving up at all, defended monetary policy and announced a strong commitment to pursuing the mandate's objectives.
FLAT BUSINESS PLACE, FRANKFURT HALLS
Piazza Affari closed slightly lower: -0,07% to 21.203. Since the end of April, the reference index of Piazza Affari has lost 3%.
In the rest of Europe Paris gains 0,2% Frankfurt +0,6% benefits from the unexpected rebound in German industrial production in March. London's Ftse 100 unchanged.
Government bond yields in Ireland, Portugal and Spain recorded new lows trailing the Bund to -0,05%, down from the lows of the last four weeks.
BTP IN SWING. THE BUND AT NEW LOWS
Other music in Milan where robust fluctuations related to the political framework were recorded. During the session, the ten-year BTP spread rose to 275 points and then returned to 266, in line with the previous day's prices.
FERRARI, RECORDATI AND UBI: SPRINT QUARTERLY
Ferrari +2,64% took care of bringing some good humor to Piazza Affari after having collected a series of target price increases from the experts after the publication of the results for the first quarter of 2019. Kepler Cheuvreux has in fact raised the price target on the stock from 110 to 125 euros, Mediobanca Securities from 113 to 120 euros and Banca Akros to 135 euros from 120 euros. Credit Suisse's target price also rose to 158 euros from 148.
Also in evidence was Recordati +2,5% after publishing a quarterly report above expectations. For 2019, the group expects revenues between 1,43 and 1,45 billion, an EBITDA between 520 and 530 million, an operating profit between 460 and 470 million and a net profit between 330 and 335 million.
New increases also for Campari (+1,1%): Berenberg and RBC raised their target price.
But the best blue chip comes from the banking sector: Ubi, after the quarterly which shows a profit net of non-recurring items of 124,9 million compared to 41,8 million in the fourth quarter of 2018, achieves a gain of almost 5% .
ITALIAN POSTAL IS SUFFERING, PIAGGIO STILL BOOMING
Unicredit (+0,1%) put on the market, through a lightning operation, (accelerated bookbuilding) 17% of Fineco Bank (-1%) with proceeds of 1,01 billion euro: the shares were sold for 9,80 euro. Positive impact at Common Equity Tier 1 level equal to 21 basis points.
Mediobanca +0,5%. Unicredit, within the framework of the announced strengthening measures, could proceed with the total or partial divestment of its share, equal to 8,4%. Intesa Sanpaolo -1,6%, Banco Bpm +0,7%.
In assets under management, Poste Italiane (-3%) closed the first quarter with a net profit of 439 million euros, a decrease of 9,5% compared to the same period last year.
Of note among the medium caps Piaggio (+8%) and Safilo (+2%).
