Confidence on the markets is growing on the eve of the most awaited appointments: the data on US employment, which today will have to confirm the recovery of the economic situation (195 new jobs expected); the start tomorrow of the congress of the Chinese Communist Party, from which new stimuli could come to the economy. Positive climate also in Europe, in view of next Thursday's ECB board meeting.
Against this background, Wall Street achieved another rise: the S&P 500 index +0,4%, further approaching the prices at the beginning of the year (-2,5%), Dow Jones +0,3%. NASDAQ +0,1%. The stability of the tertiary sector and the fact that, for the second day in a row, the increases were concentrated in the end of the session bode well.
We also like the relative stability of oil which consolidates recent gains (+30% in the last three weeks). Energy stocks take advantage of this: Conoco Philips +5,7%. Chesapeake Energy, a company specializing in shale gas, has achieved a new leap (+25%). The energy sector also did well in Piazza Affari: Eni gained 1,3%, Tenaris 2,2%, Saipem 0,7%.
CHINA LOOKS TO THE CONGRESS. BRAZIL CELEBRATES O TROUBLE BY DJLMA
Meanwhile, Asia is about to close the best week of the last five months: Tokyo, +0,4% this morning, has gained 4,7% in the last five sessions. Hong Kong +0,3%, as well as Shanghai -0,9% awaiting the indications that premier Li Kequiang will give tomorrow. There are some promising signs for the Dragon: the prices of copper, the raw material most closely linked to the Chinese industrial cycle, are strengthening, the explosion of credit growth, which could herald a rebound in investments.
In terms of emerging markets, Brazil deserves attention. New dramatic signals are arriving from the economy, starting with the confirmation of the -3,8% drop in GDP. But the Bovespa, the local Stock Exchange index, responded with a 5% increase. Supporting the rise was the news that the judiciary is preparing to indict President Djlma Roussef, guilty according to the business world of the rapid deterioration of the economy.
BUSINESS PLACE UP FOR SIXTH CONSECUTIVE DAY
The lists of the Old Continent are heading towards a cautious upward opening. Futures show London and Frankfurt +0,4%. Weak Paris -0,2%. Europe, with the exception of Piazza Affari, slowed down yesterday in anticipation of the ECB meeting next Thursday. On the macroeconomic front, the euro zone PMI fell to 53 last month from 53,6 in January, the lowest reading since early 2015. But the disappointing figure according to Chris Williamson, head of Markit, "just increase the chances that the ECB will act aggressively to avert another recession”.
Piazza Affari, the best market, nonetheless achieved the sixth consecutive increase: +0,8%., the only list to have closed with a plus sign. Paris and Frankfurt closed down 0,4%. London -0,27%.
The Btp-Bund spread closed slightly higher at 125 basis points and a yield of 1,43%. In a survey among operators, the possibility of an increase in monthly purchases by the ECB is given at 60%. Today the Treasury offers up to 2 billion bonds maturing 2017/18 to be exchanged with Btp 9/2028.
BOLLORE' IN PRESSING ON TELECOM ITALIA +5,7% AND GENERALI
Telecom Italia suddenly rose to prominence (+5,7%) close to the quotation of 1 euro. Purchases on the former incumbent increased in the afternoon after the news of the meeting in Paris between CEO Marco Patuano and the CEO of Vivendi Arnaud de Puyfontaine. According to the first rumors, a possible change of the guard is looming at the top: Vivendi, now 23,8% strong, intends to give management a change of pace and has already initiated contacts with some possible candidates for the number one position. Beyond the indiscretions, Patuano's Parisian mission served to take stock of the hot dossiers, starting with Metroweb for which a decisive meeting with the CDP is scheduled for the week and from Inwit, for which the binding proposal of F2i and Cellnex in response to the offer from Ei Towers.
However, the imprint of Vincent Bolloré, president of Vivendi and second shareholder of Mediobanca, on the Italian business is increasingly facing. The Breton financier is the first sponsor of Philippe Donnet, current CEO of Generali, who should be designated this week to succeed Mario Greco at the top of the Lion.
AUTOMOTIVE TO THE RESCUE: FCA GOOD, BREMBO SUPERS
Morgan Stanley defined Sergio Marchionne in a report as “a unique, aggressive and opportunistic talent”. The confirmation came from the umpteenth surprise outing of the manager who, on the occasion of the Geneva Motor Show, offered to collaborate on the next Apple car. "I suppose - he said speaking with Bloomberg - that we have the necessary credibility to be one of the reference players for them".
Meanwhile, Fiat Chrysler posted a gain of 2,2%. Carlos Tavares, CEO of Peugeot +3,3% in Paris said he was ready to start talks with the Italian group for possible integrations. “There can be synergies of all kinds: geographical, technological, on engines, products”.
On the automotive front, the excellent performance of Brembo (+11,4%) should be noted. The international leader in brakes for high-end vehicles has announced its results for 2015, which closed with a net profit up 42% to 184 million euros, higher than the consensus estimates which indicated 172 million. The company will distribute a dividend of €0,80 per share, unchanged from last year.
For 2016, the press release reads, "the data relating to the first few months of the year allow us to look to the future with prudent optimism, albeit in a global context of strong volatility".
PUBLISHING: RCS LOSES APPEAL, LOVE THE GREAT ESPRESSO
The reactions on the markets to the revolution in printed media triggered by the La Stampa-L'Espresso operation and by the announcement of FCA's exit from Corriere della Sera were many and varied in nature.
RCS Mediagroup fell by 7,8% to 0,562 euros. The reaction is justified by the risk of the offer of shares on the market linked to the distribution of the shares currently held by FCA among the group's shareholders: it is unlikely that the foreign shareholders (majority in FCA) will not sell the publishing shares, as they will, next March, Exor itself will get rid of the 5% coming from the split. But in the medium term, says Equita, the title could benefit from greater contestability.
Among the possible contenders for leadership, according to the broker, Cairo Communication deserves attention (-1% at closing). After the farewell of Fiat Chrysler, the first shareholder in the capital of the Milanese publishing house becomes the entrepreneur Diego Della Valle (Tod's group) with 7,3%, followed by Mediobanca (6,2%), the Schroeder fund (5 %) and by Urbano Cairo (4,6%).
L'Espresso (+2%) marks another substantial rise the day after the boom caused by the announcement of the agreement with Fiat Chrysler and the Agnelli family. The market has rewarded the birth of the leading Italian publishing group, which will be governed by a syndicate agreement between Cir, diluted from the current 54% to 45% and the Exor holding which will maintain 5%. The merger will take place on the basis of a share swap that will be established in the final agreements, subject to due diligence and other conditions.
The conclusion of the entire operation is expected in about a year (first quarter of 2017). With the increases of the last two days, L'Espresso capitalizes 426 million euros on the Stock Exchange. On February 11, the stock reached its lowest level in the last three years (March 2013), after which a vigorous reaction was triggered which led it to gain 46% in three weeks.
Kepler Cheuvreux raised the recommendation to Buy from Hold and raised the target price to 1,20 euro from 1,0 euro. Mediobanca Securities defines the deal as a "great value-creating combination".
The effervescence on the media front was also good for Mediaset (+2,7%). Banca Akros confirmed the accumulated recommendation and the target price of 3,8 euros after the negative performance of the last three months and taking into account the speculative appeal of the sector.
BANKS: TEAR OF AGREEMENT. MPS AND CARIGE GALLOP
Still in evidence the banks. In Piazza Affari, the best blue chip was Monte Paschi (+6%). Banca Carige does even better (+6,4%) the day after the presentation of the majority list of candidates for the new board of directors.
Intesa is also galloping, gaining 4%. UniCredit +0,6%. The negotiation between Banco Popolare (+0,7%) and Banca Popolare di Milano (+0,1%) is progressing by jerks. It seems that there has been progress in the negotiations with the European Central Bank, the subject that must approve the merger: it seems that after the latest changes to the plan, the operation can be approved without having to go through a capital increase.
D'AMICO: AT THESE PRICES THE COUPON RETURNS 5,6%
Excellent performance by d'Amico International Shipping (+5,9%) after the announcement of the 2015 accounts. The company, one of the world leaders in the maritime transport of refined petroleum products, closed the year with a net profit of 54 million dollars compared to a loss of 10,6 million a year ago.
In the light of the result, the best since 2009, the company active in maritime transport will propose at the next meeting the distribution of a dividend of 0,03 dollars per share equal to a yield, at current prices, of 5,6%. Banca Imi shares have a target price of 0,94 euros and a Buy recommendation.
