2018 should have been characterized by a relatively lively global economy, which should have been the backdrop for the process of normalization of monetary policies. However, the scenario in which central banks operate has become much more uncertain in just a few months: according to a report by Ref, the economic and financial research center in Milan.
By itself the exit from Quantitative easing it is a complex process, and the instability of the financial markets at the beginning of the year can in part be attributed to it. Stock markets have stopped growing and, to make matters worse, volatility has increased.
Governments are contributing in no small way to making the situation more complex. Especially in the United States, the decision was made to adopt an expansive budgetary policy at an advanced stage of the cycle, with the risk of pushing interest rates further; then hostilities began on the front of trade policies and, finally, a military escalation was threatened in Syria.
The economic indicators are starting to show some signs of a setback. For now, these are only signs of deceleration, but shared by most countries.
It is not immediate to see an answer in European policies, even more so in Italian ones, for now still blocked in the post-electoral stalemate. This is not a problem in the short term, as long as the international situation remains on a favorable path, but it could be especially so if we want to reopen the dialogue with the European authorities, trying to mitigate the implicit fiscal tightening to
2019 on the basis of the objectives indicated by the Italian Government.
On the other hand, the definition of the economic policy line of the next government will not be easy. The gap between election campaign announcements and the policies that will be implemented will necessarily be very large. It is easy to predict that the internal political framework will remain very unstable.
