Their destinies have often run parallel paths. But they (almost) never crossed paths. Despite the fact that rumors about possible agreements between Mediaset and Telecom Italia have fueled financial gossip for years, to the point that in 2007 Fininvest was forced by Consob to specify that it was not in any negotiations to enter Olimpia (holding company controlling TI times of Marco Tronchetti Provera) or in Telecom Italia itself, after an unfortunate operation with Emilio Gnutti's Hopa which cost the Biscione several tens of millions. Since then, the only dossier officially taken into consideration by the Mediaset headquarters concerns the transmission towers of the former incumbent, one of the possible preys of EI Towers, the Mediaset company remains the reference shareholder and which makes no secret of wanting to go shopping in the Peninsula. And among the possible prey, alongside the towers of Wind, Atlantia and Raiway (a difficult target for political reasons) there are the towers of Telecom Italia.
But fate, as we know, loves to play strange tricks. Once again, a crucial step for Telecom Italia's structures coincides with a choice valid for Mediaset. And the fate of the two groups is brought together by a common protagonist: Telefonica, soon to be the relative majority shareholder in Telecom Italia, but also a strong shareholder of Digital +, the Spanish platform in which it holds 56% but on which Mediaset has a right of preemption. By the 20th, the Biscione, which holds 22% of the company, can decide whether to buy the stake held by Telefonica, or remain in a minority position or liquidate the game by cashing in 350 million (or even more), precious for countering the pressing by the Murdoch group on Serie A rights.
Meanwhile, Telecom Italia is on its way to becoming a public company. Yesterday Generali canceled the Telco pact. The other Italian shareholders, Mediobanca and Intesa, will soon follow Leone's example. After the demerger Generali will control 4,3% of the telecommunications company (with a dowry of 470 million debts) the two Italian banks 1,6% each (plus 170 million debt each). Telefonica will have 14,8% (plus a generous one billion in debt), an "uncomfortable" position of relative majority. The Spanish giant, pending the pronouncement of the Brazilian Antitrust (which could impose the exit from Telecom which controls Tim Brasil, a competitor of Vivo, the Carioca subsidiary of Telefonica) will not have representatives on the board nor will it be able to dictate solutions that can think of a fact check. Finally, under the sword of Damocles of conflict of interest, he will not be able to press too much for an exit from Brazil except under exceptional conditions. But on the other hand, the presence of such an important competitor sounds like a formidable deterrent for a possible climber. Naguib Sawiris himself, who continues to present himself as an unsolicited possible partner of the Telecom public company, insists on asking for Telefonica's exit from the capital.
In short, a strange fate binds the hands of both Mediaset and Telefonica. In the case of the Biscione it is a question of replicating the choice of "Leave or double?". On the one hand, the leadership in Italy, perhaps with the contribution of Al Jazeera, but the abandonment of a growth strategy in pay TV on the only international market where it is present, Spain, which continues to give satisfaction. A difficult decision, even if these days Fininvest thinks more about raising cash than doubling down. Telefonica's decision was no less painful: increasing its presence in Italy is practically impossible. Exiting would mean admitting massive capital losses. All that remains is to reiterate the role of the grandee of Spain in a public company that tolerates the former Madrid monopolist less and less. The moment is therefore complicated for both. But who knows, maybe squaring the circle is less impossible than you think.
