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BTPs shine and banks bounce, but Pimco doesn't trust them

The BTP party continues but the largest bond manager in the world does not trust the Italian economy and remains underweight on our government bonds – Brexit: the EU ponders extending negotiations with London to 2020 – Goldman Sachs leads Wall Street

BTPs shine and banks bounce, but Pimco doesn't trust them

Chinese premier Li Kequiang announced in a radio message new public investments to support the economy. Meanwhile, the Chinese central bank continues to pump money into the financial system: almost 170 billion dollars in the last week. But Beijing's efforts are largely thwarted by new tensions with Washington over Huawei, increasingly in the sights of the US authorities. The Wall Street Journal wrote that federal investigators are about to proceed with the indictment of the leaders of the world's largest manufacturer of telecommunications equipment, accused of stealing trade secrets from some US companies, such as the T-Mobile telephone company. Germany, reports Handelsblatt, also intends to exclude Huawei from supplies for the 5G network.

The Asian stock exchanges are little moved this morning. China's markets are up slightly, while the dollar-yuan rate is flat at 6,76. Tokyo's Nikkei index unchanged and Mumbai's BSE Sensex +0,2%.

OIL ABOVE 61 DOLLARS, LEAP OF SAIPEM

Closing up yesterday evening on Wall Street, at the highest for a month under the pressure of the quarterly: Dow Jones +0,59%, S&P 500 +0,22%. NASDAQ +0,15%. The US government lockout arrived on the 27th: economic statistics postponed due to lack of funds.

The day was dominated by the rally of Goldman Sachs (+5,9%) and Bank of America (+7,2%) after strong progress in quarterly reports.

Brent oil traded at $61,1 a barrel this morning, down 0,4%, after gaining 1% yesterday. Gold barely moved at 1.291 dollars an ounce. On the rise in Piazza Affari Saipem +2,39 (overweight for Morgan Stanley but target price reduced to 6 from 6,7 euros). Tenaris +0,39%, Eni +0,21%.

THERESA MAY SAVE THE GOVERNMENT, MONDAY PLAN B

The Brexit saga continues. Yesterday Theresa May, with the decisive support of Ulster unionists, passed (326 votes in favor, 305 against) the motion of no confidence presented by Labor. On Monday, the prime minister will present plan B to Parliament: the chances of success are minimal. The risk of chaos is so high that, writes The Times, European Union officials are examining the possibility of postponing Brexit to 2020 after Germany and France signaled their willingness to lengthen negotiations. The 1,30-year bond of Great Britain yesterday weakened to 5% yield (+XNUMX basis points).

Euro down against the dollar to 1,138, also due to the latest statements by some members of the executive council of the ECB, Mersch from Luxembourg and Nowotny from Austria spoke with concern about the current economic slowdown. The euro is at a six-week low against the pound, trading at 0,884 this morning.

TOP BUSINESS PLACE IN EUROPE

Italy, until a few weeks ago the epicenter of tensions in the Eurozone, has almost become a happy oasis. Milan, thanks to the rebound of the banks, in fact led the rise in the lists: +1,63%, going up to 19.477 points.

The index reached its highest level since the beginning of December thanks to the rebound in financial stocks (Italian banks index +4%). Since the beginning of 2019, the blue chip index has extended its gain to +6,0%: it is the best result at the Eurozone level. Frankfurt rose by approximately 3,5%, in line with London (+3,4%). Good yesterday in Paris (+0,51%) and Madrid (+0,69%). Only London (-0,5%) was negative.

THE SPREAD FALLS BELOW 260 POINTS. BUT PIMCO DOESN'T TRUST IT

The celebration of BTPs continued, after the excellent reception given to the new 15th anniversary by international investors, who absorbed 64% of the issue (10 billion). The Btp/Bund gap closed by more than 13 basis points to end at 259 basis points from 272 on Tuesday evening, the ten-year rate at 2,76% from 2,86%.

There are also two and five-year periods: the yield has fallen to the lowest levels since the end of May and July respectively. The June 2020 benchmark risk premium on counterparty Schatz closed down 10 cents at 94 basis points.

Pimco, however, does not trust. The world's leading bond manager expects zero or slightly negative growth for the current year in 2019 and remains underweight on BTPs. The euro zone, according to the manager, will grow by only 1-1,5% and Italy, which is "very weak", will weigh heavily on the area. Furthermore, "the first part of 2019 will see a strong growth in BTP issues, with consequent pressure on the bond market".

BANKS TO THE RESCUE: +4,3%

Banks are flying in Piazza Affari, which at the end of the session recorded +4,3%. After Tuesday's weakness, triggered by news of a tightening by the ECB on the management of NPLs, the main Italian banks have communicated that they do not fear a significant impact on the targets with the new indications from the Supervisory Authority. Among the best are Unicredit (+5,8%), Ubi (+3,8%) and Intesa (+3,7%).

Asset management was also brilliant, starting well in the morning thanks to the government's announcement that the implementing decree for the new PIRs will be ready by February. FinecoBank stands out, closing at +5,6%. Anima also did very well (+6,4%).

MORE FININVEST IN MEDIASET: TODAY CDA TELECOM

Purchases on Telecom, which closes at +2,7% pending today's board meeting. Meanwhile Fininvest strengthens its grip on Mediaset (-0,88%) in an anti-Vivendi function: the share of the Berlusconi family holding rises to 43,73% of the capital and approximately 45,45% of the voting rights.

Sales in no particular order on utilities: down Terna, Snam, A2A and Enel. Pirelli partially recovers (-0,7%), a heavy match after Goodyear's warning on the fourth quarter.

Campari down (-1,4%). The leap of Rcs Mediagroup (+7,05%) should be noted in the rest of the list. Excellent performance also for Giglio Group (+19,76%).

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