The war context is changing everything: from the management of goods to energy and supply sources, but in the economy it is also changing the concept of "safe haven" to which investors referred in the past in situations of uncertainty. The uncertainty is there, but the criterion of safe investment has changed. For example, the swing between the bond and stock market has always been noted: in times of uncertainty, the latter was sold and the former, considered safer, was bought. In recent weeks however – as Morya Longo also noted in Il Sole 24 ore – investors have moved away from the bond market, which since the beginning of the war in Ukraine has lost 5,2% in the USA and 5,1% in the Eurozone. On the other hand, they seem to have become safe haven assets the stock markets, once seen as riskier, driven by sectors such as utilities (+12% since the start of the war on Wall Street), energy (+6%), real estate (+10%), health (+4,5%).
Fears of monetary tightening and inflation
More than war, investors fear the most significant economic repercussions: inflation and the monetary tightening of central banks. It is precisely the mix between the inflationary rise and the growth of official rates that ignites the government bond yields that started from zero or even below zero. You have tried to keep gold as a safe haven. But in the end it didn't shine at all, so much so that it has often dropped below 1900 dollars an ounce, returning negative (-0,7%) since the beginning of the war, while since the beginning of the year it has posted a modest +3,6%, even in this case influenced by the expectation of a rise in official rates in the United States.
On the other hand, it is precisely this expectation that has made the greenback soar, which has gained 6,25% on a basket of global currencies since the beginning of the war.
