A study carried out by HSBC highlights what could be the future scenario of European banks. According to estimates based on stress tests conducted evaluating the hypothesis of losses deriving from sovereign debt and adopting the parameters of Basel 3, the banks of the Old Continent could find themselves in the need to carry out recapitalizations of a minimum of 98 billion to a maximum of 192 billion.
The simulation showed that Italian and Spanish banks would be the hardest hit in both scenarios, the former on 2013 estimates of Risk-Weighted Assets and the latter on a 15% increase in RWAs in 2013.
To comply with a core tier 1 of 10% as envisaged by Basel 3, the Swiss and British banks would not need a capital increase in the first scenario while the French would, especially in the second hypothesis. Among the 36 banks taken into consideration, the one with the greatest need for recapitalization seems to be Deutsche Bank, estimated at around 27 billion in the worst case scenario.
For Italian banks, the prospect is, in the "soft" case, 26,8 billion, while in the more critical scenario it reaches 45,3 billion. As far as the Spanish are concerned, the hypothesis ranges from 30,5 to 38,6 billion.
Going into detail, the estimates are: for Unicredit 10 billion in the first scenario, 17 in the second. Santander 10 in the first and just under 20 billion in the second, for BBVA 8 and 14 billion, Intesa Sanpaolo 6 and 12.
For Crédit Agricole and Société Générale, the estimates range from 5 to 12 billion, while Bnb Paribas remains solid in the first scenario but needs just under 10 billion in the second.
