NOON OF FIRE FOR ATHENS AT DEFAULT RISK
FOR THE FT MONTE PASCHI RISKS REJECTION OF THE EBA
It is precisely the case to speak of a fiery noon. At 12, in fact, the ultimatum from Lucas Papademos, the Greek prime minister, to the three main parties to accept the terms of the agreement negotiated with the troika made up of officials from the EU, the ECB and the IMF, necessary to unblock the new aid (130 billion ) for the Greek country. The deadline to avoid default is February 13, after which the insolvency procedure will start for the 14,5 billion bonds maturing on March 20. The most delicate issue concerns the reform of the labor market which provides for new cuts on minimum wages and thirteenths.
Crucial days also for the agreement with private creditors, or for a 50% cut on the nominal value of the bonds which will result in an effective "haircut" of 70% for the banks that have already discounted almost the entire amount in their balance sheets. For Joseph Ackermann, outgoing president of Deutsche Bank who leads the negotiations as president of the IIF, a break in the negotiations "could open a Pandora's box capable of nipping the recovery of the Eurozone".
WEATHERBAG. The tensions coming from Athens weigh on the financial markets which reopen after Friday's rally, triggered by positive data on the recovery of the US labor market. For now, in Asia, the calm coming from the USA has prevailed over the clouds in Athens. The Nikkei 225 index rose by 1,04%. But the euro is down 0,5% against the dollar. On the sovereign debt front, the most important test is the 8,5 billion auction launched this morning by France.
The Milan Stock Exchange recorded its fourth consecutive rally on Friday: the FtseMib index rose by 1%, the Italian blue chip index rose by 3,1% this week. London (+1,8%), Frankfurt (+1,6%) ran more today. In the USA, on the eve of Facebook's IPO, the Nasdaq is at its 11-year high, at the December 2000 level, in the middle of the Internet bubble. It was the Nasdaq's best start to the year since 1991. The Dow Jones, on the other hand, rose to its highest level since May 2008, before the Lehmann Brothers crash. The Standard & Poor's 500 index rallied 1,5%.
"We are on the right track," said former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers commenting on the latest statistics on new jobs. Countdown to the EBA verdict. In the middle of the week, the European banking authority will decide whether the plans to strengthen the capital by the Italian banks requested in this sense are sufficient and congruous or not. Thanks to the capital increase, UniCredit has already left the list. Good hopes are nourished for Banco Popolare and Ubi. The most delicate question concerns Banca MPS: the Viola plan envisages real estate disposals that are not easy these days and a complex split of Crediti.it. These will be days of intense work for Siena and, above all, for the Bank of Italy.
The Financial Times, which cites three sources "close to the EBA", believes that the Authority is preparing to pronounce a series of rejection of the plans prepared by the banks in question. In particular, according to the FT it is very difficult for the EBA to be satisfied with the plan presented by Commerbank and Monte dei Paschi.
Time is running out for the Fonsai Unipol operation. Already this morning Mediobanca could have defined the consortium for the next capital increases of the companies. Participants: Unicredit, Morgan Stanley, Nomura, Crédit Suisse. The adhesion of Deutsche Bank, Barclays and Ubs is also almost certain. As early as Thursday 9, the Unipol board of directors will call the meeting for the recapitalization (about 1 billion, half guaranteed by Finsoe, number one shareholder) and will appoint the financial and industrial advisors. Next week there will be the most delicate step: the request to Consob for exemption from the takeover bid by Premafin (after the entry of Unipol) on Fonsai.
The quarterly rain continues. In Italy, the calendar provides for the week's boards of directors on the accounts of: Aeffe (today, February 6), Buzzi Unicem and Yoox (February 8), Recordati, Sabaf and Piquadro (February 9), Astaldi and Indesit (February 10). among others, it will be up to: Coca Cola, Cisco, Moody's, Philips Morris, Nyse Euronext, Walt Disney. In Europe, the accounts of: BP, Total, Glaxo, Sanofi, Ubs, Crédit Suisse, Bhp Billiton, Vodafone and News Corporation will be released.
Sergio Marchionne does not give up. Even if the request for contributions from the US Department of Energy has remained unanswered for more than a year now, the Chrysler CEO confirms from Las Vegas, where the car dealer convention is underway, that "I have no intention of withdraw the application, also because the Department has not communicated a refusal”. The stop to the Chrysler case (3,5 billion dollars the request) is explained by some injuries of the Department, in serious embarrassment for having allocated funds to companies that ended up in bankruptcy.
For four years, between 2006 and 2010, a cartel of 12 banks, among which it allegedly influenced, drawing illicit profits, the Libor and Tibor rates, those on the basis of which credit institutions lend money to each other on the markets of London and Tokyo. He discovered it, opening an investigation in Switzerland, the Comco, the Competition Commission, or rather the Swiss antitrust. An investigation that also concerns operations on the derivatives market since the banks, which ended up in the Comco's sights, would also have agreed on the purchase and sale price of these products, on terms advantageous for them but not for the clientele. The institutions targeted are: UBS, Credit Suisse, Royal Bank of Scotland, Deutsche Bank, HSBC, Rabobank, Société Générale, Citigroup, JP Morgan, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi and Mizuho Financial.
