An agreement with China within the year is still possible, says a senior Washington official. And the Asian stock exchanges react this morning with a prudent rise.
This morning, Tokyo's Nikkei was up 0,6%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng was up 1,5%, the Shanghai Composite was up 0,3% and Seoul's Kospi was up 1%.
Risk appetite rises and the yen falls to 108,8 against the dollar.
Gold barely moved at 1.461 dollars an ounce, -0,4% last week.
Brent oil at 63,5 dollars a barrel, from -1% on Friday.
An apparently calm scenario, but the weekend brought quite a few changes both in the political-economic scenario and on the business front. In Asia, but not only.
Le Hong Kong elections they decreed the triumph of pro-democracy, the movement that emerged from the protest against Beijing which won a large majority in a challenge that saw wide popular participation (72% of those entitled to vote).
What are the consequences? In the short term, the news contributes to the rise of the stock markets, because it should restore order to the streets and favor the positive debut of trading on Alibaba, expected for tomorrow.
But the distances between the US and China remain. Any agreement on "phase one" of the talks on duties will not be followed, Reuters warned this morning, by the start of "phase two", i.e. by a negotiation on intellectual property, even if Beijing, as stated in a document published on Saturday, does not rule out a tightening of the legislation on the defense of intellectual property.
BLOOMBERG CHALLENGES TRUMP
No less relevant was the political and financial news gained over the weekend.
The most relevant news concerns the descent into the field of Michael Bloomberg, 77, in the race for the White House. The former mayor of New York has announced that he will try to win the Democratic nomination, overcoming the crowd of candidates so far in the field, to then contend for the White House with Donald Trump. “I am running for president to defeat Donald Trump and rebuild America – he declared in a video – We cannot afford another four years of reckless and unethical actions by President Trump”. What convinced the owner of one of the most important news and financial data networks on the planet (which he will put up for sale in case of victory) was the fragility of his competitors, too left-wing (see Elisabeth Warren) or too modest in appeal to counter President.
ARNAULT BUYS TIFFANY ($16,7 BILLION)
On the business front, two historic operations are on the way. The Swiss pharma giant, Novartis (capitalization around 200 billion dollars) has announced a purchase offer on the American The Medicines for 9,7 billion dollars to support its leadership in anti-cholesterol treatments.
However, this operation risks being overshadowed by Bernard Arnault's latest acquisition. Today Lvmh will announce the last coup (for now) of the luxury giant: the purchase for 16,7 billion dollars of Tiffany's, the icon of US luxury.
Central Bank Week kicks off tonight with a keynote speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, the first since meeting with President Donald Trump.
The Beige Book will be published on Wednesday, the document based on the stars and stripes trend of the real economy.
On the corporate front, the accounts of Best Buy should be followed. But attention will be focused on the launch of the Christmas campaign: it begins on Thursday with Thanksgiving, followed by Black Friday.
TODAY THE IFO INDEX, SAVINGS PLANS IN MANEUVER
In the Eurozone, the most important appointment is the release of the Ifo index on business and consumer confidence in Germany, which will be followed during the week by other statistics from across the Rhine relating to the labor market and inflation.
From a domestic point of view, the horizon already complicated by the Ilva and Alitalia dossiers is enriched by a new dramatic chapter: the collapse of a bridge on the Turin-Savona line (managed by Sias), fortunately without victims, sounds like a dramatic confirmation of the conditions of the infrastructures. The news is the setting for the release of data on business and consumer confidence in the Bel Paese, as well as other important numbers arriving this week: the GDP trend in the third quarter, the trade balance, inflation and the trend of the occupation.
Today an amendment to the tax decree linked to the maneuver that provides for the relaunch of the Savings Plans (PIR) will be put to the vote in the Finance Committee in the Chamber. The reform, shared between the majority and the opposition, provides for the abolition of the limit, already in force for natural persons, of holding a single Pir; the only constraint will be that of investments in Pir for a maximum of 10% of the assets. For private banks and pension funds, as subjects other than natural persons, the limit of a single investment will no longer apply from 2020 January XNUMX.
FINAL CLOSURE FOR MEDIASET/VIVENDI
The epilogue of the negotiations between Mediaset and Vivendi is approaching. The French group, according to the latest news, has agreed to negotiate the sale of Mediaset shares at 2,77 euros plus any adjustments to arrive at an economic benefit equivalent to at least 3,1 euros per share. The turning point, surprisingly, came with a last-minute phone call between the lawyers, who agreed to give themselves an extra week, until Friday 29 November, to close a "grave" deal: 2,77 euros per share (628 million ) with "compensatory" formulas for various operations: from the failure to purchase Premium, to the "pirating" of content by Dailymotion for a total compensation estimated at 240 million. Vivendi would therefore remain with 10% in Mediaset, ready with the move to Amsterdam to give life to the project of laying the foundations for a pan-European TV hub. However, next week will not be a walk in the park for the lawyers. Certainly Mediaset will demand from the French a formal commitment not to go up in share. Who will buy Mediaset shares? It is the egg of Columbus: it should be Media for Europe itself.
Spotlight on Generali which seems ready to launch an offer on the American MetLife. The proposal is expected to be worth around €3 billion for activities concentrated in Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Romania. The goal would be to find a team by the end of the year. Certainly in the plans of the CEO Philippe Donnet, reiterated on several occasions, there is the will to grow in Central and Eastern Europe, areas considered key in perspective for the development of the Lion of Trieste.
