What is the best month of the year to sell or buy a house? According to industry experts, it seems to be the month of September. To say it first of all are the statistics, as noted by the Revenue Agency. But the real estate agents also say so who, upon returning from vacation, see a lively recovery in interest. But compared to the fears of recent months? Rate hike, influences from foreign markets? What is the market mood now?
In September, the real beginning of the year, the interest in the brick returns
Many believe that September be true beginning of the year, not January. It will be the legacy of when school started or just for the return of the children. It will be that under the umbrella it is pleasant to fantasize about the future, which could also include a house move. And then, when they return, they are all back on the platforms, to sell or to buy or both. "TO September the search for real estate historically reaches gods important peaks” also underlines the idealista.it real estate portal: for decades, September has been the month that most stimulates the desire to buy a new home. A constant also revealed by the data of the Real Estate Market Observatory of theInland Revenue: in 2022 there was a +1,7% in sales in September, compared to other periods of the year. And anyway the quarter July-September it's always been that way more active, underlines the portal again.
Home: in September more advantageous prices
Furthermore, there is another factor that should not be underestimated, linked to the trend in the average prices of the real estate market. Generally speaking, in thelast decade September has always been the month of a slight drop in prices of properties, albeit contained compared to other periods of the year.
A sigh of relief from the ECB helps the market recover
And this year? Where are the fears that loomed on the horizon before the summer break?
One of the fears has a very concrete name: rising gods official rates and consequently, for those who must resort to a mutual, also an increase in the installment.
But in this area a sigh of relief comes right from ECB than in the last posts did not refer to further increases in September, as could be expected in the spring. Obviously too early to think about a trend reversal, but even just the prospect of stabilization helps.
A global Reuters survey among real estate analysts shows that even double-digit price declines that were predicted at the start of the year due to rising mortgage rates have not fully materialized, as higher mortgage rates household savings, shortage of supply and increased immigration limited the declines. And soaring mortgage rates, the result of more than a year of interest rate hikes by major central banks, haven't hit everyone either.
The fear of the Chinese giant is limited to the area
In crisis since 2021, the Chinese real estate giant Evergrande presented in mid-August filing for Chapter 15 bankruptcy protection in a New York court in Manhattan, raising concerns about the possible consequences on the global financial system. Now, on the other hand, it is believed by many that it will remain mostly within the Chinese area and will have no consequences on our markets. "To date they do not see each other on the horizon of risks of contagion as happened - if we want to make a comparison - at the time of Lehman Brothers" he said Stephen Caselli, Director of the SDA Bocconi School of Management and full professor of Economics of Financial Intermediaries at the Bocconi University in Idealista. “Obviously this is a very serious matter, because we are talking about an operator of gigantic dimensions. We are talking about China, 2/3% of the Chinese GDP. But talking about a contagion effect today is difficult”. In fact, Caselli continues, we need to consider that on the one hand “the lenders are mainly Chinese, therefore the exposed banks are mainly Chinese, and this reduces the risk of contagion. On the other hand, this operator works on a market made up of Chinese residential properties, which have in fact only been purchased by Chinese citizens. So, both on the funding side and the purchasing side, Evergrande is a closed system''.
Interesting opportunities in the coming months
According to some surveys, the prospects for the coming months are therefore once again positive, with the return of interest without the price peaks seen in the past months. “The forecasts for the real estate market are that in 2023/2024 it will offer interesting investment opportunities” he says Dario Castiglia, CEO and founder of RE/MAX Italia. "It will be a calmer market with favorable conditions for those who have liquidity or who can access credit".
Situation that satisfies both Italian and European, as evidenced by the survey conducted by RE/MAX Europe, interviewing 16 consumers in 22 countries. Will Italians still buy a house in 2023? According to data, 45% of those interviewed in Europe are more inclined to buy a property than a year ago, with a percentage rising to 50% in Italy. Among Europeans who are considering buying a property, one in four is considering the possibility of doing so in a country other than their own. One of the most eligible destinations seems to be Italy, which ranks 4th among the most sought-after destinations both for relocation and as an investment. “Despite the recent hikes, interest rates are still at attractive levels when compared to the peaks reached in past years,” he adds.
Looking for bigger, more efficient and home automation homes
“The market will continue to be driven by those looking for larger homes (also as a result of smartworking), by those aiming for energy efficiency by looking for more eco-sustainable homes and by the growing sensitivity towards home automation and technology that will push many towards the purchase new buildings,” he says Mark Speretta, general manager of the Gabetti Group.
