The long-awaited moment has arrived. Tonight, at 3:XNUMX Italian time, the first and probably only one will take place TV debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump ahead of the US presidential elections scheduled for November 5. Both candidates have been holed up with their staffs for days, trying to prepare themselves as best as possible for a clash that could prove decisive, given the very narrow gap between the two that emerges from the polls. Nothing will be left to chance, from individual interactions to the smallest gestures. But in this case, everyone is sure of one thing: It won't go like last time.
Kamala Harris is not Joe Biden. Confused silences, stuttering, constant uncertainties should not be the order of the day. The former prosecutor who has built an entire career on her oratory, at least on paper, is perfectly capable of giving a Donald Trump a run for his money. Trump, for his part, has an enviable brazen face, but above all an experience in TV debates (he is at his seventh debate, never been like him) that could play in his favor.
And this is also why, according to forecasts, not only nThere is no favorite, but the outcome of the debate is unpredictable. A slip or a well-timed joke could be enough to decide the outcome. After all, if you look back, the archives are full of memorable single phrases that have marked the confrontations between presidential candidates: from the ironic comment of the then 73-year-old Ronald Reagan against the 56-year-old challenger Walter Mondale (“I will not exploit my opponent’s youth and inexperience for political purposes”) to the killer phrase of the tycoon in the last disastrous debate of Joe Biden (“I really don’t know what he said at the end of that sentence, I don’t think he knows either”).
The central topics of the evening? The economy, first of all, but also abortion, the conviction of Trump despite the sentence having been postponed until after the elections, the international geopolitical situation. And already on the eve, the confrontation promises to be heated. In an interview, Harris said she expected her rival to “lie and attack people,” according to the “old playbook” she has used in the past. “He has no limits on his vileness, and we have to be prepared for it,” she warned, anticipating that she intended to paint him as a “man who fights for his own interests, not for Americans” and focus on the unity of the country. The tycoon instead teased her on social media accusing her of everything, from the invasion of migrants to the catastrophic withdrawal from Afghanistan. And he threatened “long years of prison” to anyone who cheats in the elections.
The Rules of the Harris-Trump TV Debate
The rules of the debate they are the same as the Biden vs Trump comparison happened in June. It will last 90 minutes interspersed with two commercial breaks. There will be no audience in the room, the candidates will not be able to help themselves with previously written notes. The two faces will always be paired to allow spectators to catch every change in expression. For the entire time, including the two commercial breaks, they will not be able to interact with anyone, except for the two moderators. Again, there will be no opening statements.
The microphones will remain off except when it is each person's turn to speak: at the first meeting Biden had asked for it, to avoid Trump from pressing him; this time Trump demanded it, to avoid Harris from pressing him. The latter tried until the very end to change the cards on the table, asking a review of the rules. He wanted the microphones to always be on. The reason? Making Trump lose his compass, continually provoke him to forget the advice of his staff, simply by doing “Trump”. Which would have confirmed what is “weird”, “strange”, the term that the Democratic candidate and her allies have been using for months to refer to Republican candidates, mocking them with a smile.
Harris-Trump: The Topics of the Debate
The attacks will be harsh, at times unfair, probably personal. And neither of them seems to have any intention of backing down. Trump will emphasize how many times (many) Harris has changed positions since 2020 and on what topics, branding her as "extremist" and "dangerous." However, he will have to be careful to control himself and not utter any of the insults said or written up to now (and there are many in this case too, let's avoid repeating them), because during a debate they could become a boomerang and favor his rival. fake news? As is tradition, many lies are expected from the former president. Not that it has ever mattered, especially considering that the “fact checking” will only come after the debate (late in the evening in the US) and not during. “I will let her speak,” the former president promised, but few really believe it.
Harris, on the other hand, as mentioned, will do everything she can to make Trump lose his head, trying to constantly press him as she did in the courtroom when she was a prosecutor. She has a lot of material at her disposal, but whether her attacks will succeed remains to be seen. She will try to win over minorities. Not only African-Americans, but also and above all the numerous Latin American voters who have moved increasingly to the right and whose electoral weight is enormous. Special attention will be paid especially to women. And for this too abortion – a key issue after the Supreme Court overturned Roe vs Wade, which influenced the politics of 46 states – will certainly be a central theme of the debate, along with civil rights, borders and'immigration, to the veterans and to the chaotic withdrawal from Kabul, which has been brought back into the spotlight with mutual accusations. Attention must also be paid to the international geopolitical situation, the wars in Gaza and Ukraine. Trump will try to argue that, under the leadership of the “Biden-Harris” ticket, the influence of the United States has been reduced (“with me it would never have happened and there would not have been wars” he has said several times).
And then, of course, the economy, that has always influenced US elections. On this issue, Harris has a lot of points to make up. And she knows it very well. It is no coincidence that in recent weeks she has first presented a economic plan focused on the middle class and then tried to curry favor with companies, promising help and proposing a 33% overall capital gains tax, against the 44,6% promised by Biden.
The latest macro data will also be central, confirming the progressive cooling of the labor market in view of the now certain interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (the question is about the amount: 0,25% or 0,50%).
What the latest polls say
It's neck and neck. The two are practically tied after the Democratic exploit that followed the changing of the guard between Biden and Harris. According to the latest poll conducted by the New York Times/Siena College, Trump is ahead at a national level with 48% of the preferences against 47% for the vice president. A survey conducted by the Pew Research Center shows instead that, if the vote were held today, 49% of the registered voters interviewed would vote for Harris and an identical percentage for Trump.
The Swing States, Swing states? In some Harris is slightly ahead (Georgia, Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin), in others Trump (Arizona and North Carolina). In all cases we are still within the margin of error and the situation is very fluid.
Be careful with money too, because those will count (a lot) too. In August alone, the Harris-Waltz ticket raised $361 million, three times more than the $130 million collected by the Trump-Vance duo. Money that the Democrats will spend on the biggest social advertising ever seen. And it could really make a difference.
Harris-Trump Debate: Where to Watch It
The debate will take place in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, one of the key states of this election. It will be broadcast by ABC, with a live broadcast starting at 21pm local time. In Italy it will be 3 on the morning of Wednesday 11 September and the debate will be broadcast live on Rai, Canale 5, La7, Nove, Sky Tg24 with translation into Italian and comments from experts.
