Russia-Ukraine war: there is no de-escalation. Biden raises the alarm, Wall Street and the European stock exchanges fall

Growing risk of war in Europe is holding markets back, prompting investors to move into less risky assets than equities, such as gold or government bonds, as a central bank tightening approaches to contain inflation.

The stock markets of the Old Continent therefore closed the session down, after an increase in sales in the afternoon in the wake of the negative start on Wall Street. The Nasdaq is down about 12% year-to-date. New York stock markets are accelerating downwards following the words of President Joe Biden according to which "The risk of a Russian invasion is extremely high" and Moscow's aggression could start "in the next few days". While currently "not scheduled" a conversation with the Russian president, Vladimir Putin.

In this picture Business Square it is in the dark and loses 1,11%, slipping to 26.669 points, with a rotation on stocks which sees oil companies and banks once again at the bottom of the list.

In the rest of Europe: Amsterdam -1,02%; London -0,88%; Madrid -0,75% Frankfurt -0,68%. The best is Paris -0,26%, supported by the good performance of luxury after i Kering results (+5,11%), excellent thanks to the Gucci brand. Peak Moscow: -3,71%.

Among the raw materials flies thegold, reclaiming its role as a safe-haven asset and appreciating by 1,34%, to $1,894,21 an ounce.

The gas race starts again, while it travels in reverse the oil on the basis of the negotiations that could save the 2015 Iranian nuclear agreement. Brent crude oil drops 2,36% and trades at around 92,6 dollars a barrel.

Purchases are directed instead on government bonds. In the US, the 2-year yield is below 1,97% (XNUMX), after a reading of the Fed minutes, published last night, which did not alarm Wall Street. Furthermore, today the data on the weekly requests of unemployment benefits and it turned out worse than expected. Requests rose by 23 to 248, against expectations of a drop to 218.

The yields of the ten-year Italian benchmark also fell, +1,84% and that of the Bund +0,23%, for one spread down to 161 basis points (-1,06%).

The dollar index rose slightly, but the euro kept the exchange rate around 1,136.

The yen, one of the main 'safe haven' currencies, did well thanks to the 'risk-off' tone prevailing on the markets. The ruble remains weak, while the Turkish lira is recovering after the confirmation of rates by the central bank.

Piazza Affari in red with oil companies and banks

On the main price list of Piazza Affari the increases are contained and start from Atlantia +0,96% and Recordati +0,66%. Raise your head Ferrari, +0,56%, after the losses on the eve of the presentation of the new F1-75, the single-seater for the 2022 Formula world championship.

It is confirmed in progress Prysmian +0,27%, good Post + 0,36% Campari + 0,24, Italgas + 0,14%.

The biggest discounts are for banks, above all Bper -3,98% Unicredit -2,73% Mediobanca -2,36%. Among the bad financial Nexi -3,12%.

Oil stocks closed the session in the red, starting with Tenaris -2,83% (despite the excellent accounts) to Saipem -2,76%. Bucking Eni, +0,2%. In the automotive sector the most affected is Iveco -3,52%.

Ukraine crisis in the foreground

After Covid (which hasn't stopped causing damage yet, given the situation in Hong Kong) there is the Ukrainian crisis that keeps the world in suspense, including the financial one. 

The optimism of a few days ago, when Russia had begun to withdraw troops from the borders, it seems vanished. The United States says that "Russia is moving towards an imminent invasion" and NATO is worried "that Russia will create a pretext to attack Ukraine". On the other hand, the Kremlin speaks of "Western hysteria", but meanwhile sends away the US deputy ambassador.

The Italian premier Mario Draghi clarifies that “the situation is essentially that of a few days ago. These episodes which seemed to herald a de-escalation are currently not taken seriously. We must remain prepared for any eventuality." The former president of the ECB indicates the objective of seating Russian president Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky at the negotiating table and Italy is doing everything possible to achieve this result. Draghi also confirms that he will go to Moscow to meet Putin and the organization of the meeting is underway.

Also worrying are the news coming directly from the hot front of the two countries, which accuse each other of having fired projectiles beyond the ceasefire line in eastern Ukraine, giving the feeling that a small fuse could trigger a dangerous reaction to chain.

Finally, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen recalls that the sanctions against Russia, in the event of an invasion of Ukraine, would have "global repercussions". "We want these sanctions to affect Russia above all, but we must recognize that they would also have global repercussions".

Lane (ECB): "Low inflation will not come back"

The energy price increases push those of other sectors and keep the level of inflation high as a whole also in Europe: the issue is examined in the latest ECB bulletin. The central bank tends to keep its hands free, expecting these tensions to subside over the course of the year. On this point, however, the chief economist of the ECB Philip Lane made his voice heard today, according to which "there are many factors that indicate that the context of excessively low inflation, which prevailed between 2014 and 2019 (when average inflation was just 0,9%) may not re-emerge even after the end of the pandemic". Therefore the ECB will set its monetary policy so as to reach its symmetrical 2% target over the medium term, tolerating neither overreaction nor underreaction to emerging inflation risks.