Wars, hunger, migrations. It is an apocalyptic scenario but realistic and not to be underestimated, the one described in the last one Report "Climate change and territory" of the UN scientific committee on climate, the IPCC, released on Thursday morning in Geneva. "Soil is a crucial resource" is the starting point of the entire Report, which once again recalls how global warming caused by man will increase drought and extreme rainfall all over the world, jeopardizing agricultural production and the security of food supplies. The consequences will be paid above all by the poorest populations of Africa and Asia, with wars and migrations. But the Mediterranean is also at high risk of desertification and fires. Therefore, no one can feel excluded from the catastrophe.
In October 2018, the IPCC published the climate report which warned that, if the world did not reduce greenhouse gas emissions immediately, global warming could already exceed the threshold of +2030 degrees by 1,5 pre-industrial levels. It was therefore concluded that it was necessary to remain "well below" a growth of 2 degrees, tending towards the objective of +1,5. Little concrete has been done since then. The new study released in Geneva focuses on the relationship between climate change and the territory, studying the consequences of warming on agriculture and forests. It was prepared by 66 researchers from all over the world, including the Italian Angela Morelli. For the first time, the IPCC notes, 53% of scholars come from developing countries.
DESERTIFICATION AND LAND DEGRADATION
The point is that even with global warming at 1,5 degrees from pre-industrial levels (the most ambitious goal of the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement), the risks from water shortages, wildfires, , permafrost degradation and instability in the food supply. But if climate change reaches or exceeds 2 degrees (the Paris minimum target), the risks will be "very high". Indeed, as temperatures rise, the frequency, intensity and duration of heat-related events, including heatwaves, will continue to rise into the XNUMXst century, predicts the study. They will increase thehe frequency and intensity of droughts, particularly in the Mediterranean region and southern Africa, as well as the extreme rainfall events.
FOOD SAFETY AT RISK
The stability of food supplies is expected to decline as the magnitude and frequency of extreme weather events, which disrupt the food chain, increase. Agriculture and land use are responsible for 23% of man's greenhouse gas emissions. A more balanced diet based on low-carbon products (vegetables and fruit, less red meat) could free up 4 to 25 million square kilometers of surface area and mean fewer emissions equal to over three billion tons of CO2 year.
Increased levels of CO2 can also lower the nutritional qualities of crops. In arid regions, climate change and desertification will cause reductions in crop and livestock productivity. Tropical and subtropical areas will be the most vulnerable. It is expected that Asia and Africa will have the most people affected by increased desertification, while North America, South America, the Mediterranean, Southern Africa and Central Asia will see increased wildfires.
Climate change can amplify migration both within and between countries. Extreme weather events can lead to disruption of the food chain, threaten living standards, exacerbate conflicts and force people to migrate. Climate change will also increase the negative economic impacts of unsustainable land management.
THE REMEDIES THERE ARE
Sustainable food production, sustainable forest management, soil organic carbon management, ecosystem conservation, land restoration, reduction of deforestation and degradation, reduction of food loss and waste. According to the IPCC report, these are the tools to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and therefore global warming, through land management. According to the study, some measures have an immediate impact, while others take decades to achieve results. But not all remedies give immediate results
They are immediately effective in conserving ecosystems that capture large amounts of carbon, such as swamps, wetlands, grasslands, mangroves and forests. On the other hand, forestation and reforestation, the restoration of ecosystems with a high carbon capture, agroforestry activities, the restoration of degraded soils are long-term measures.
