Other than globalization. Under pressure from Washington, Europeans and Japanese raised their stakes export barriers of machinery for the production of chips, starting with the Dutchman's almost irreplaceable gadgets ASML that enable the creation of the most sophisticated semiconductors necessary for the development of weaponry more sophisticated, as well as for applications ofartificial intelligence. Beijing's response should not be long in coming: according to experts, China will soon assert its technological and manufacturing leadership catl in batteries forelectric car, complicating the US green car plans (at least 50 percent of the components will have to be produced in the US, according to the law wanted by Biden). Not to mention green Europe's dependence on Chinese hegemony. “The world – reads the report of the International Energy Agency of July 2022 – will almost completely rely on China for the supply of the key elements for the production of solar panels until 2025. Based on the production capacity under construction, the Chinese share of polysilicon, rods and wafers will soon reach 95%”. A good mortgage on growth strategies in the years to come, if the logic of friendshoring continues to prevail, i.e. the globalization limited to friends.
The US-China challenge on chips and declining trade in the de-global world
But the challenge between China and the United States is destined to be the keynote of the international situation marked, thanks to the difficulties of trade, by the slowdown in growth provided by the International Monetary Fund. The data of World Economic Outlook attest to the slowdown from 6,1 to 3,4%, but also the forecast that in the next five years the world economy will grow by less than 3%, the lowest medium-term forecast since 1990. fall of the Berlin Wall but above all to the openings of Deng Xiao Ping.
The Dutch ASML interrupts supplies to Beijing: historical significance
It is in this framework that the last one must be inserted tight on semiconductors imposed by Washington against Beijing, a move so aggressive that, according to the British stic Nial Ferguson, it recalls Franklyn Delano Roosevelt's restrictions on oil imports from the Japanese empire, one of the causes that led to the attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941. Doing the spells, the ASML's decision to interrupt supplies to Chinese industries certainly has a historic significance. The Dutch company, born from an offshoot of Philips, tried to defend its neutrality until the end (15% of its turnover depends on China) with respect to geopolitical disputes, only to recognize, on 8 March last, the need to join to the Washington embargo.
After all, the Veldhoven company is unique in the world, the only card in Europe's hand in the challenge of the chips. With 35 employees arriving from 119 countries (with a rate of new hires of 3,500 units every six months) Asml it is the flagship of European science: here, with the essential contribution of the German Zeiss, the production process of the machines for the chips based on the ultraviolet lithography extreme which allows the development of 2/4 nanometer semiconductors, much more advanced than Beijing's technology can achieve, despite the financial efforts. These technological treasures, widely shared with the Taiwanese Tsmc, must not reach Beijing, is Washington's diktat, which Dutch premier Mark Rutte had to comply with. But it happened to Ursula Von Der Leyen anticipate to Xi Jinping in the recent Chinese mission the new rules that the EU is about to launch to "prevent the escape abroad of emerging and sensitive technologies".
The New War on Chips: How Will China React Now?
It is easy that the Chinese president took it badly. But, on March 31, another cold shower arrived, this time from Japan. Starting in July, Tokyo will also ban Nikon and Tokyo Electron from exporting the machines necessary for the production of cutting-edge chips, thus eliminating the only alternative to ASML, a stock giant (seeking 200 billion capitalization) unknown to most of investors. This is how he gets up an electronic barrier between China and hi tech which belongs to American technology: behind the geopolitical background a trade war ignites to the last chip, Waiting for the response from Beijing: on lithium, rare earths or batteries. We will see.
