Great Britain's exit from the European Union could give a boost to stable governments in the Old Continent, because in a period of uncertainty, citizens need firm points and stability. She is convinced of it Elizabeth Gualmini, professor of political science at the University of Bologna, Pd vice president of the Emilia Romagna Region and former president of the Cattaneo Institute.
Professor Gualmini, do you believe that Brexit, after having earthquakes in Great Britain and Europe, will also change the Italian political scenario? Are Matteo Renzi's government and leadership at risk?
“No, paradoxically Brexit will have the opposite effect. The shock of Great Britain's exit causes such bewilderment in the European and Italian populations that no one feels the need to add uncertainty to uncertainty. The result also produces quite a bit of discontent. Scotland is rising up and many Britons are only now realizing the meaning of the vote. Just think that in England, right now, the first search on Google is: European Union. Evidently not much was known about it. In these phases stable leaderships are strengthened. People fear new upheavals, seek shelter from populist and anti-system winds, the desire to team up increases. I am convinced that this situation will also give a boost to the Italian constitutional referendum, that is, to the modernization of the country. Brexit, for Italy, is an opportunity to relaunch on a continental level, now it can play a central role, with France and Germany. This does not mean that the signal should be underestimated. The risk of contagion from Eurosceptics is always there, especially in the Netherlands and Poland. This is why the time has come to change European policies, to create stronger policies. Juncker's resignation is not an answer".
Angela Merkel does not seem to be oriented in this direction…
"It is true. Germany is holding back at this moment, while others are also accelerating for Great Britain's exit quickly. The expected change of pace has not yet arrived. However, we must bear in mind that Merkel is preparing the political elections and does not want to give the impression, to her electors, of being compliant towards Italy and France. As far as Great Britain's exit is concerned, it is the first time that article 50 of the Treaties has been applied, it is a new chapter, everything to be written and it will take some time”.
Is the fact that political leaders continue to base European policies on problems of internal consensus a brake on the Union?
“Yes, this is a real problem. Each leader responds to his own public opinion and national selfishness resurfaces strongly, also because there are segments of the population very affected by this long and very deep crisis".
Don't you think that Renzi too may encounter growing consensus problems, as the latest polls reveal? The local elections have sent out a signal. In such a rapidly evolving European and national context, don't you think the prime minister risks being perceived as a representative of the establishment rather than a standard bearer of change?
“The results of the administrative elections were not flattering for Palazzo Chigi. Whoever governs always pays the price of greater volatility of public opinion, power has a price. As a scholar, however, I distinguish administrative elections from national ones, they are not superimposable, at least not completely. In local elections, the candidate's personal history matters more, alliances are more variable. In short, there are many differences, the fact remains that the Five Stars have obtained positive feedback and there is still a lot of dissatisfaction with politics".
After Brexit, the Italian constitutional referendum is becoming an appointment that all of Europe is watching, it will probably be postponed to December and will arrive after the Constitutional Court's ruling on the Italicum. Should we use this time to rethink the electoral law, starting with the prize for list voting that the opposition of the Democratic Party and part of the opposition would like to replace with the prize for the coalition?
“In the meantime, I would like to remind you that the referendum and the electoral law are different things. The electoral law does not need confirmation, it can be changed with ordinary law. The proposed constitutional changes, on the other hand, finally put order in the division of labor between the State and the Regions, simplifying the system. If every time we talk about the referendum we look into the merits, citizens will understand and appreciate reforms that are written to last over time. The electoral law, on the other hand, puts us in line with Europe, the fact that a party with a relative majority receives a prize and governs stably is as true in France as it is in Great Britain”.
The experience of the Ulivo and that of Forza Italia and the Lega show that the Brancaleone armies win the elections but make government action difficult. However, the ballot in Turin shows that, when there are three forces in the field, winning is a problem because the electoral law pushes the opposition to unite against the first party. How is this contradiction resolved?
“Precisely when the system is three-pole, in my opinion, a double shift is needed, that is, a system that ensures governance, in order not to fall back into the swings of the past. Nothing prevents the various forces from making a single list and weighing more. If Renzi then decides to change the law and award the prize to the coalition instead of the list, it won't be a drama or a great change. What matters, for the mechanism to work, is the ballot. I prefer two big parties, but if we really want contentious coalitions, let's give them space".
Should Renzi resign or not in case of defeat in the referendum?
“Britain teaches: Cameron has resigned. I think it's difficult to stay if public opinion rejects the reforms you are fighting for. Responsibility requires consistency”.
And what about the ungovernability resulting from the Spanish elections?
“That electoral systems need to be changed according to different political systems. In fact, these days the Spaniards are studying the Italicum, with a double shift”.
