No other maneuvers are needed: there are no assets or further tax interventions under study. The markets are volatile, but there is no distrust towards us. The Deputy Minister of Economy Vittorio Grilli appears optimistic and reassuring in front of the senators and deputies of the Budget commissions of Palazzo Madama and Montecitorio engaged on the Def.
Thanks to the last three manoeuvres, an adjustment has been made to the public accounts, equal to 5% of GDP - Grilli assures us -, and in the future our country sees growth, perhaps not gigantic, looming, just 0,5% starting from next year, but with a strengthening trend in subsequent years. And if the resources start, between now and 2020 there is a growth potential of 2,4%.
“We do not have any patrimonial plans or other fiscal interventions”, Grilli reiterates. As for the spread, which exceeded 400 once again this morning, "the markets are volatile, but not because they don't trust us". Moreover, if it is true that with the worsening of the crisis on the markets since last summer "the positive symptoms for the Italian economy have faded and unfortunately in 2012 this will turn into negative growth", it is however equally true - he remarks Grilli – that in 2013 there will be “a weak but positive economic recovery of 0,5%. Then growth should strengthen in 2014 and 2015”, by 1% and 1,2% respectively.
But that's not all: "Between now and 2020 there is a potential for additional growth in these eight years of about 2,4 percentage points of GDP, about 0,3% per year more than in a situation in which the reforms". Of course, the public debt is Italy's “Achilles heel”, but it must be considered that aid to countries in difficulty has also weighed on its performance”.
The worsening economic situation means that between 2011 and 2012 there is an increase in debt. But since 2013 a downward trend has already been forecast, reaching 2015% of GDP in 110, from 120% this year. Gross of aid in 2012, it would be 123%, net 120% - he added - the jump from 2011 to 2012 is much more limited if you look net of these measures". But the last three maneuvers have led to a correction of public accounts by almost 5 percentage points. The cumulative public finance interventions of July and September, says Grilli, led to "an adjustment, for 2011-2014, of 3,4 percentage points, to which was added the save Italy with another 1,4 percentage points, bringing our adjustment process between now and 2014 to almost 5 points on time, exactly 4,9 points”.
The set of summer measures, explains the deputy minister, guarantees a net correction of net debt of around 60,0 billion when fully operational in 2014, equal to 3,4 per cent of GDP. The further correction at the end of the year led to a net adjustment of approximately 21 billion when fully operational in 2014 (1,4% of GDP), guaranteeing the achievement of a balanced budget in 2013. The set of maneuvers approved in during 2011 entails a structural correction of 48,9 billion in 2012, equal to 3,1% of GDP, which rises to 81,3 billion in 2014, equal to approximately 4,9% of GDP. So there are no other maneuvers in sight.
“The correction of the public finances is there and it is sufficient”, points out Girlli. After all, she adds in replying to journalists, not even the IMF is asking for anything more than what has already been done. To "accelerate" the process of adjusting the public accounts "the disposals and enhancements of public assets may be useful: we are working and we hope to bring results soon".
However, "we must not deceive ourselves, because the impact of any structural cut in public spending" such as the one that will come with the spending review, "does not facilitate growth". To decide on major cuts in public spending, “political sharing with Parliament is needed. If we talk about the need for tax cuts or investments worth billions of euros, we need political sharing to understand where to find spending savings, also worth billions of euros. The strategy and the steps of the spending review will be announced shortly, the prime minister will give the timing”.
Finally, a joke about the Bank of Italy: “There must be no concern about the possibility of bringing the Bank of Italy back into the public arena, there are all the safeguards. Today the Bank of Italy is not a private institution, but a public one, regulated down to the smallest detail by the system of central banks in the euro area”.
