La Greece officially emerged from the longest recession in modern history. Athens announced this morning that the GDP in the third quarter grew by 0,7% (the best variation among those of all the countries of the Eurozone), after the +0,8 and +0,3% recorded respectively in first and second quarters (data released only yesterday). On an annual basis, however, the Greek GDP rose by 1,4% between July and September. According to forecasts, for the whole of 2014 Greece should grow by 0,6%.
In light of the less positive data of France and Germanyas well as even negative ones Italy, one may be tempted to portray the performance in Athens as a kind of revenge after the very strict austerity imposed by the Troika. However, it should be remembered that between 2008 and 2013 Greece lost about a quarter of its GDP, by far the most serious contraction compared to that accumulated in any other Euroland country.
As far as absolute values are concerned, according to calculations by the World Bank, in 2013 Germany's per capita GDP exceeded 45 dollars, that of France went just over the threshold of 40 and that of Italy stopped just below 35. The figure for Greece, on the other hand, remained below 22 dollars.
The situation in Greece is therefore still difficult and living conditions in the country remain very far from pre-crisis levels. On the other hand, public finances are now considered in order (although public debt will peak at 177% of GDP this year) and Athens has achieved its first primary budget surplus in decades. In this scenario, the government of the conservative Antonis Samaras aims to raise 9 billion in 2015 directly on the capital market, exiting the IMF assistance program by the end of 2014, ahead of schedule, which envisaged the conclusion of the aid in 2016 (the EU aid program will end at the end of the year).
The exit strategy will allow Samaras to put an end to the Troika visits, but the ESM (European Stability Mechanism) will accompany the process with precautionary credit lines to be activated in case Greece "needs more funds".
However, the head of the Greek government will also have to overcome a political obstacle: in February he will be forced to find the majority of 180 deputies necessary to elect the new president of the Republic and according to Syriza, the left-wing party led by Alexis Tsipras today in first place in the polls, early elections will be inevitable.
