Sunday May 6, the citizens of ben four European Union countries will go to the polls. In recent days, under the eye of the cameras, the lively has prevailed clash between Hollande and Sarkozy competing for the French presidential elections. Nevertheless the outcome of the Athens elections will be as important as that of Paris for the future of Europe. The Greek country is still in the midst of a crisis, with a continuously declining GDP (-5% in 2012), incredibly rising unemployment (21,7% in January) and social tension which is rising after the numerous cuts in public spending imposed by the Troika (ECB, EU and IMF) to obtain the additional aid package.
The EU can only wish for the victory of party conservative led by Antonis Samaras, New Democracy (polls give it 25%) or the party socialist Pasok, 19% according to polls, whose leader, Evangelos Venizelos, who for months juggles the corridors of Brussels. Despite the declarations of the two leaders during the electoral campaign, many analysts believe a coalition between the two parties, a disguised caretaker government, under the vigilant aegis of the European Union is highly probable. In this case, in fact, Greece would confirm the commitments made towards international institutions and would continue to do everything possible to remain in the Euro. But it is enough to take an overview of the political fragmentation to understand that such a government would be very weak and fragmented to ensure adequate political stability in the country.
According to a survey published by Credit Suisse, the desired victory is by no means certain. The other parties, despite the 3% barrier, will have broad consensus given the climate of uncertainty towards the future that reigns in Greece. The problem is that all these movements, with the sole exception of the liberals, I don't agree with the austerity measures imposed by the Troika, indeed their electoral campaigns were based precisely on the rejection of austerity as a solution to get out of the crisis. Given the numerous demonstrations that take place in Athens, and the tragic numbers of suicides in the country, it seems that public opinion is inclined towards these alternative measures.
Observers are most frightened by the extremists on the left the communists gathered in the Kke (9%-11% of votes again according to Credit Suisse) and to the right the pro-Nazis of Golden Dawn (which could go as far as 5% of consents). Both not only do they want to declare default but also to exit the Euro. The radical left of Syriza (9%-13%) and the party conservative independent Greeks, however, want to abandon the austerity measures agreed with the EU, declare a unilateral default but at the same time remain within the Eurozone (option that generates great doubts since procedures for such an event have never been defined by the Union). These four parties together, could reach at least the 30% of the votes: it is clear that in such a situation it would be very difficult for a government to take decisions, especially if it is a question of increasing those of increasing austerity reforms, as proposed by New Democracy.
The Greek electoral campaign (but not only this one) was dominated by demagoguery and populism. The parties seem to have taken advantage of the social malaise that pervades the country and the desperation of citizens in search of a less difficult recovery. Yet the political response seems to have been an incoherent set of promises and proposals that seem more a hasty way to gather consensus rather than a reasoned ethical impulse towards a real economic alternative. On Monday it will be known which path Europe will begin to follow.
