Brussels does not trust the government in Athens and fears that a liquidity crash could occur at any moment and bankrupt Greece. For this international creditors would be preparing an ultimatum to be presented to Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras at the end of May: it would be a take-it-or-leave-it list of reforms to unblock the last tranche of aid worth 7,2 billion euros in extremis. The Greek newspaper Kathimerini wrote it, recalling that the extension to the support program expires at the end of June and with it also the possibility for Athens to collect the installment.
The aim of the ultimatum would be to corner Tsipras, also denying him the time to organize a referendum to ask the Greeks to express themselves on the measures requested by Europe. The Greek Premier had spoken in recent weeks of the possibility of holding a popular consultation, stating that the government has no right to accept an agreement that contradicts the mandate with which Syriza won the elections (the so-called "Thessaloniki Programme" is based on three pillars: stop austerity, revive growth, fight the crisis Greek humanitarian).
If Tsipras rejects the ultimatum, Greece would have to face its own maturing debts with the ECB, which amount to about 6 billion euros between June and July, a sum that Athens could not put together even if all reserves were exhausted.
Thus the fear that Greece will fail to avoid bankruptcy reappears, so much so that theIMF is reportedly working with national authorities in southeastern European countries (Bulgaria, Romania, Albania, Serbia, …) on a contingency plan to handle a Greek default. He writes it in the Wall Street Journal, citing an inside source at the Fund. These countries would be more exposed to Greece, having several branches of Greek banks on their territory. On the other hand, the bankruptcy of Athens would not cost the main economies of the Eurozone cheap either, considering that, in the event of a Greek default, Italy alone would lose around 41 billion euros.
Meanwhile, the only certainty at the moment is that today's Eurogroup it will not produce any agreement between Brussels and Athens. However, the Eurozone will officially write to Greece to ask for "harder work", an acceleration that will allow reaching an agreement within a few weeks, given that "time is running out".
The Greek government does not want to touch the pensions nor increase theVAT: “No conclusion has been reached on any of the dossiers under discussion,” admits a source.
Wednesday Athens will have to pay 800 million euros to the International Monetary Fund and it is not yet clear with what resources it intends to pay.
