It must not be easy being a Greek citizen today. Seeing their representatives sign what, in their eyes, can only seem like a death sentence and, on the other hand, a Europe for which all this is not enough. The rage that is being observed these days (more than 80 on the streets of Athens, with at least 60 injured) comes from a double disappointment: first for what happened in 2000, when the government falsified its budgets to join the euro, and now before the government that is accepting draconian reforms to stay there at all costs.
With the passage of time and with the escalation of social tensions, the trust of the European Union in the Greek government is diminishing. The announcement of the elections in April has certainly not reassured the EU institutions who fear a change in the rules once the match has already begun. The German Finance Minister, Wolfang Schaeuble, in the last meeting of the Eurogroup, forced Athens to undertake in writing to implement the austerity measures. He is worth opening the door to leave the euro. Returning to the drachma, a taboo option until a few weeks ago, is starting to take on more concrete characteristics. In fact, it seems that Schaeuble has threatened his Greek colleague, Evangelos Venizelos, to impose a referendum to decide whether to continue using the single currency or not, in the event that the guarantees from Athens are not sufficient. And right now the result seems quite evident.
Tonight Parliament (with 199 yes and 74 no) has approved several austerity reforms, which are worth a total of 3,3 billion euros, almost one and a half points of GDP. The country will sell public shares in the oil, gas, water and lottery industries, cut pharmaceutical spending, liberalize some tourism-related businesses and open the energy market to foreign investment. Further cuts for a total of 300 million euros will then have to be established with Troika officials. Furthermore, today is the deadline for deciding on an agreement with private creditors, which could lead to an easing of Greek accounts for 100 billion euros.
The goal is to record a primary surplus of 2012 billion in 3,6 which would become a slight deficit with interest payments. But once the budget is balanced and having repaid the most urgent obligations, the temptation to default could be great. Perhaps this is the doubt that creeps among European ministers who are increasingly skeptical of Greece. On the other hand, the debt continues to be 160% of GDP, and it is expected that in 2012 the economy will record a decline of between 4 and 5%. Athens has done what was asked of it and now it is up to the Troika (EU, ECB and IMF) to grant the second aid package of 130 billion euros. But the last word has not yet been said. The Eurogroup will meet on Wednesday and until then we will all be holding our breath.
