The economy still needs tonics. This is the signal that comes from the PMI indices on manufacturing activity in China and Japan, both below the 50-point barrier (the boundary between expansion and stagnation). The markets reacted with a slight rise: Tokyo +0,4%, Shanghai +0,3% awaiting new expansionary measures by the banks The governor of the Bank of Japan, Haruhiko Kuroda, reiterated in Parliament that "it is too soon ” to think about the end of Qe.
Closing up also on Wall Street, favored by comforting data from real estate: the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 rise by around 0,50%, Nadaq +0,42%. The Facebook accounts disclosed in the evening are disappointing: the growth rate slows down, to a two-year low, after the Stock Exchange the stock loses 2%. On the contrary, after the quarterly, the after hours rewards AT&T (+1,7%).
MILAN TOP LIST IN EUROPE
Appointment this morning with the PMI indicators also for the Eurozone. In the meantime, the price lists experienced a day yesterday that was almost a photocopy of the previous one: a good opening, followed by a sharp deterioration, without an explanation, and a moderate final recovery. This time, unlike Tuesday, the best price list was the Italian one.
Milan closed with a gain of 0,32% at 23.315 points. Paris also rose +0,36%. Frankfurt -0,6%, Madrid -0,2%. Down London -0,5%. Note the rise of the pound (71,20 pence to the euro) and of the gilts (+15 basis points) after the publication of the Boe's minutes, less "dovish than expected".
RECOVER THE BTP: ATHENS RISK WEIGHTS 30 BPS ON RETURNS
The BTP recovers positions: the 1,424-year bond falls to 134%, the spread is at 0,1631 basis points thanks to a rebound in yields on the Bund, which have risen to XNUMX%. According to the experts, it was a technical reaction, pending more precise indications on the Greek crisis, the key factor in recent weeks.
According to Vincenzo Longo, IG strategist, the tensions over Athens lead to a May on BTPs of 30 basis points. On 12 March, the Italian ten-year reference rate, in December 2024, reached a historical low of 1,04%. The rate then settled around 1,20% until it shot up to the 1,50% area last week.
At the April 27 auction, the Treasury will offer 2,5-3 billion medium-term bonds: from 1 to 2 billion Ctz; from 500 to 750 million Btpei 15/09/2024; from 500 to 750 million thirtieth of Btpei 15/09/2021.
GREECE, TEN-YEAR DOWN, RECOVERS THE STOCK MARKET
Greece will not present a list of reforms to the Eurogroup on Friday, said Thomas Wieser, head of the Eurogroup's working group, adding that the country should still be able to be solvent until June. From Athens, Deputy Finance Minister Dimitris Mardas announced that "we still lack 400 million", to face the next debt maturities (and the payment of pensions and salaries to the state) in April. Thus the Eurogroup on 11 May will be decisive, the day before the expiry of 770 million in debt to be repaid to the IMF. Already tonight the Greece dossier is back in the hands of Angela Merkel, who will meet Alexis Tsipras on the sidelines of the European Council dedicated to the refugee emergency.
In the meantime, a comforting signal arrives: the ECB has once again increased the maximum limit for the granting of Ela emergency liquidity in favor of Greek credit institutions by another 1,5 billion. This is the last available channel for Athens to obtain liquidity. Also thanks to this signal, Greek bonds reacted. The cost of financing for the two-year period fell by 218 basis points to 27,05%, a very high level, and that for the ten-year period by 71 basis points to 12,70%. The Athens Stock Exchange advanced by 1,64% after yesterday's -3,33%. Piraeus Bank rebounded 23% after hitting all-time lows yesterday with a 15% drop.
UNICREDIT: BEREMBBERG DOUBLES ITS TARGET
The recovery of the stock market was made possible by the rebound in the banking sector. The star of Unicredit shines clearly +3,4%, the best blue chip in Piazza Affari. The signing of the agreement with Santander on Pioneer is expected within days. The asset management group controlled by Unicredit will integrate its activities with Santander Asset Management, creating a global asset management giant controlled 50% by Unicredit and 50% by the Spanish group, plus Warburg Pincus and General Atlantic, the two private equity companies that already participate in Santander Asset Management. It will be a 400 billion euro group, among the top ten in Europe and the top 30 in the world.
However, it was above all the judgment of Berenberg who moved the Unicredit stock, who decided to promote the stock to Buy from Sell, doubling the target price to 8 euros from the previous 4 euros. YTD performance expanded to +18%. The rest of the sector was also positive yesterday: Intesa +1,3%, MontePaschi +0,7%, Pop.Milano +2%, Banco Popolare +2,5%. Bpm recovers 2%. Among the insurance companies, Generali -0,8%, UnipolSai -0,3%.
LUXURY: FOR MEDIOBANCA, 2015 RECORD FOR MONCLER
On the other hand, a step backwards for the luxury sector, under pressure from Kering. The holding of the Pinault group lost 4,2% after the release of preliminary data for the quarter lower than expected: the Gucci brand was above all disappointing: the recovery, after the exit of the De Marco-Giannini couple, is proving difficult. Both Tod's -2,6% and Ferragamo -1,6% suffer.
Moncler +2,6% goes against the trend, supported by the growing belief that the French Eurazeo, second shareholder with 23%, is in no hurry to sell its shareholding when the lock-up expires. In view of the quarterly accounts scheduled for 12 May, Mediobanca Securities expects a "very strong start to the year" and confirmed the outperform recommendation on the stock and the target price of 18 euros.
STM STILL IN FLIGHT. AGCOM TELECOM WAND
The tech sector is up sharply (European Stoxx +1%): the Dutch Asml, one of the largest manufacturers of machinery for the production of chips, rose by 10% after the announcement of a 1 billion order. The advance of Stm continues +3%.
Instead, Telecom Italia is holding back -0,5%. Agcom has approved a formal notice against Telecom Italia on the new contractual and economic conditions for fixed network customers.
Instead, there is an opening on the Metroweb front: Telecom Italia will be able to have the majority in Metroweb with appropriate governance rules and by accepting to have other telephone operators as shareholders. This was stated by Franco Bassanini, president of Cassa depositi e prestiti (Cdp) which, through F2i and Fsi, controls the network company: "We have always said that this is the preferred model and suggested by the authorities: a company open to all operators and with a strong financial partner. If Telecom accepts the entry of the other operators, it will be able to have the majority right away, even if appropriate governance rules will have to be written”.
In terms of towers, Ei Towers rose +1,68% to 54,45 euros. Equita Sim raised the target price on the stock from 54 to 57 euros, confirming the buy recommendation.
S&P CUTS ENI'S RATING +0,4%
Oil prices rose slightly this morning: Brent is trading just above 63 dollars. The changes in oil stocks were also modest. Saipem +0,4%, Tenaris -0,2%. Eni +0,4% did not react after the decision by Standard & Poor's to cut the long and short-term rating on the six-legged dog to 'A-/A-2' from 'A/A-1' with outlook stable. At the same time, the US rating agency downgraded the oil major's long-term senior unsecured debt rating to A- from A.
The agency believes oil and gas prices will remain low over the next two years, leading to shrinking profits and continued negative discretionary cash flow despite management's actions to cut dividend and capex.
Among the utilities, Snam falls -1,3% despite the fact that Rbs has raised the target price from 5 to 5,25 euros, confirming the outperform recommendation.
PININFARINA WILL BE INDIANA IN DAYS. IMI PROMOTES OVS
Pininfarina is back on track +11,39% after a postponement due to an excess hike. The sale of the majority stake in the company to the Indians of Mahindra & Mahindra could take place before the balance sheet meeting, scheduled for April 29th. “I don't feel like confirming it, but I don't feel like ruling it out either,” chairman Paolo Pininfarina declared yesterday.
Among industrialists, Finmeccanica -0,3%, Fiat Chrysler +0,1%. Ovs +3,83% to 4,88 euros. Banca Imi has started hedging the stock with a hold rating and a target price of 5 euro. The same business house then reduced the recommendation on Geox +0,12% from add to hold, with the target price rising from 3,08 to 3,72 euros.
