He's a bogeyman consolidation, partial, of Greek debt to keep the stock markets in tension. The match that is played in Athens, and above all between Athens and Brussels, has in fact a crucial junction: the date of 29 December. It is precisely on New Year's Eve that the Parliament of Athens will arrive at the third ballot for the election of the President of the Republic. And if the qualified majority of three fifths (180 votes) is not reached, the elections will have to proceed. This is what Greek law provides.
The mechanism set in motion by the current premier Antonis Samaras, who wanted to anticipate given the fruitless negotiations carried out so far with the troika (IMF, European Commission and ECB), it is in fact clear: to start voting in Parliament next week to elect the new President of the Republic (the one in charge expires in March). The goal is to be able to count on a solid majority before starting the new recovery plan to be agreed with Brussels.
It is not certain, however, that the operation will be successful and it is precisely this that the markets fear. If the new president is not elected to Parliament on December 29, the way would be paved for early elections to be held between the end of February and the beginning of March. All polls lead the way Alexis Tsipras and his Syriza party who, with good reason, interpret the national sentiment of intolerance towards the harsh austerity regime imposed by Europe. Furthermore, Syriza is given 27,5% and therefore below the 33,7% required for an absolute majority. The leader of the opposition would therefore necessarily have to find allies. And it is no coincidence that he seems to have softened his most intransigent initial positions.
However, Tsipras has promised and confirmed that he wants to put an end to all austerity policies: on the one hand with an 11 billion euro stimulus plan for the economy, on the other with the request for a conference on debt with the aim of canceling a third of the Greek public debt which has risen to 175% of GDP.
Faced with this prospect which would put especially German banks in difficulty and would in any case raise the bogeyman of a default, as agreed, with all the risks and problems associated with it, the Stock Exchanges reacted badly. They fear that the victory of the Greek anti-Brussels left could attract followers, starting from Spain crossed by Catalan independence pushes and the possible affirmation of Podemos!, another movement pushing for a revision of the agreements within the EU. With inevitable repercussions on the Fiscal compact. Without exaggerating catastrophism, many predict that volatility is destined to last at least until the end of the month when it will be seen whether Samaras' bet has been successful or not.
