GREECE SAVES, PRIVATE "DISCOUNT" RISES. 230 BILLION ARRIVES IN ATHENS (130 FROM EU)
What a battle. Only after four o'clock tonight, after new cuts imposed on Athens' private creditors, it was finally reached agreement on Greek debt. But the negotiation was more complicated than expected because, once again, it was necessary to redo the accounts: 136 billion was needed, not 130; at the end of the therapy, in 2020, the debt/GDP ratio would have fallen to 129%, not 120% as estimated. Thus began the pressure on private creditors: four times the Greek representatives were forced by the Germans and the Dutch to rush to the private creditors' table to obtain further discounts. After a dramatic tug of war, the cut in interest, already set at 50 per cent, rose to 53,5 per cent, which should allow the target of 120,5 per cent to be achieved in 2020. In total, Greece's bailout plan is worth 230 billion: 130 coming from states, another 100 from the cancellation of private debts. In the end, according to ECB president Mario Draghi, "a very good agreement was reached". But the "sustainability report" distributed to the meeting participants paints a dramatic scenario. Even in the most optimistic case Athens will need at least another 2020 billion euros by 50. But the worst-case scenario cannot be ruled out, based on more pessimistic estimates of the economy's prospects: in this case, the bill for Europe will rise by at least another 75 billion by 2020, a figure that will serve to contain the Greek debt by 160%. .
The agreement, however, allowed the euro to immediately get back on its feet: the single currency is worth 1,3293 against the dollar. Futures on stock exchanges are up, down in overnight trading on Asian markets. In Tokyo, however, the Nikkei 225 index dropped by 0,24%, Hong Kong by 0,19%. This morning's session will also be conditioned by the publication of the European consumer confidence index.
Attention will be focused on the impact of the agreement on government bonds, already recovering yesterday on the wave of optimism for the outcome of the Euro-summit. The yield on the 10-year BTP fell by 9 basis points to 5,44% and the spread with the Bund fell to 349 basis points. According to the general manager of Banca d'Italia Fabrizio Saccomanni it is possible to reach the target of 200 bps.
To underline the comeback of Made in Italy is also the success of theissue of the Intesa Sanpaolo bond with a duration of 5 years, something that hadn't been seen in Italy for many months. The stock received orders worth $2,25 billion against a $1 billion offer with orders worth $2,25 billion, says one of the deal's lead managers.
The stock lists are also celebrating. In Milan, the Ftse Mib index rose by 1,07%. London +0,65%, Frankfurt +1,3%, Paris +0,75%. During the morning, the Stoxx600 index of European stock exchanges rose to its highest level since the end of July 2011.
The sigh of relief of the financial markets has overshadowed the tensions between Europe and Iran: the oil the WTI type went as far as 105,3 dollars a barrel +1,6%, the highest in the last 9 months after the block on sales of Iranian crude to British and French companies.
MONTI: "THE FORCED DEFENSE OF ITALIANITY IS NOT GOOD FOR THE SYSTEM IN THE LONG TERM"
“It is a pity to go against the elegant and pleasant notion of a parlour, but we think that in the past it has sometimes protected the existing asset and allowed the somewhat forced survival of the Italian character of some companies, preventing the Schumpeterian creative destruction and not always doing the 'long-term interest'.
In front of the audience of big names in finance gathered at Palazzo Mezzanotte Mario Monti yesterday morning pronounced these words: the top management of Mediobanca and Unicredit were impassive, committed to defending Fonsai's Italian identity. No reaction even in the face of the passage in which the premier defended the rationale of the rule that prevents the accumulation of positions on the boards of banks and insurance companies introduced in the save Italy decree.
Meanwhile, Pop.Milano +8,2% and Banco Popolare +5% boosted the electronic price list. The Pdl allegedly proposed an amendment to the provision on liberalisations, with the aim of removing the per capita vote from popular elections.
Down from the maximum Unicredit +1%, Intesa Sanpaolo +1,5%, Mediobanca +1,7% and Ubi Banca +2%.
Meanwhile, the negotiation for the sale of 15% of Banca Mps in the hands of the Foundation is in full swing. The package will be acquired by Equinox, which will have the largest share, and the Clessidra fund. Meanwhile, the candidacy of Alessandro Profumo for the presidency is taking off.
Little move Generals +0,5%. The fireworks are back on the stocks of the companies preparing to give life to the second Italian insurance hub. Unipol +8,7%, Milano Assicurazioni was suspended due to excess increases for almost the entire afternoon and closed with a theoretical increase of 24%. Yesterday Unipol filed a complaint with Consob asking whether information asymmetries and hidden agreements are behind the boom in the Fonsai share (+173% since 30 January). Also yesterday Unipol asked the Commission to rule on the exemption from the takeover bid on the Florentine company as part of the bailout plan.
STM was up 8,2%. The reaction is due to Carlo Bozotti's decision to appoint the financial director Carlo Ferro, at the top of the ST-Ericsson joint venture, the weak link of the group who is unable to set up a credible strategy that will free the company from the problems of Nokia and you relaunch it in the world of mobile devices. Ferro, reads his curriculum vitae, "directed important restructuring initiatives that led to the reduction of the silicon wafer processing plants from 18 to 7 and to the downsizing of the sites without production activities reduced by a third". A similar therapy is expected for StEricsson.
Eni rose by 0,6%, Saipem by 2,2%. Enel lost 0,9%. Regional and local utilities increased due to the rumors about a maxi aggregation: Hera +2,4%, Iren +3,1%, Acea +1,6.
