Fasten your seatbelts, the financial week promises a thrilling start, starting with Europe, the most affected by the Greek drama. Yesterday evening, a little after 19 pm, the Greek delegation left the negotiating venue with the EU technicians who judged the latest proposal coming from Athens completely unsatisfactory. At this point, it seems very unlikely that the negotiations with Athens will have a positive outcome in time to honor the commitments with the Monetary Fund. Thus the most traumatic hypothesis emerges: the blocking of the circulation of capital and the freezing of bank accounts.
The first reaction on the Asian markets is marked by caution: the euro falls, around 1,12, weak share prices starting from Tokyo, supported however by the rise in the dollar. Australia -0,4% and the Chinese Stock Exchanges: Hong Kong and Shanghai -1,2% fared worse.
DRAGONS GOES ON THE FIELD TODAY
The markets are hoping for a last-minute agreement, within the Eurogroup meeting on 18 June. But the positions, after yesterday's breakout, are very distant. On the one hand, the Greek premier Alexis Tsipras reiterates that he will only accept "sustainable agreements" and judges those of creditors as "irrational requests". His right-hand man, Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis, echoes him: "We will not touch pensions". On the other hand, creditors have lost patience. German Socialist Deputy Prime Minister Sigmar Gabriel said that "Germany will not be blackmailed: we want to help Greece stay in the eurozone, but it's not just time that is running out, all of Europe is losing patience".
Mario Draghi will speak today at 15 pm in the European Parliament. The markets trust, as always, in his intervention to unlock the game.
THE FED SETS THE COURSE ON THE COST OF MONEY
Tomorrow at 14 pm, Italian time, the seven members of the monetary committee of the Fed, the Fomc, will begin the meeting from which the markets are awaiting indications on the rise in US rates. Very few, no more than 3% of analysts polled by Bloomberg, expect Wednesday's statement to herald an increase. But every word, as well as every statement from Janet Yellen, will be scrutinized very carefully. The forecast is for an increase only at the beginning of 2016 or for a slightly more than symbolic 0,25% adjustment in September.
Other central banks will take center stage on the financial scene. The Swiss National Bank will meet on Thursday: the focus of the meeting will be the examination of interest rates which, in all likelihood, will remain at 0,75%.
Japan should also keep interest rates unchanged: Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will hold a press conference on Thursday. The total capitalization of the Tokyo Stock Exchange surpassed the level it reached in 1989 on Friday.
RUSSIA CUTS RATES, UKRAINE TO BREAK WITH CREDITORS
Not just Greece. The deadline for negotiating Ukraine's debt to private creditors (15 billion) will expire on Wednesday. In the event of no agreement, Kiev threatens the unilateral cancellation of the two bonds. The IMF, for once, is on the side of the debtor, announcing that in the event of default it will not stop aiding the country. It must be said that 3 of the 15 billion under discussion are due to the Moscow Sovereign Fund.
The agenda also includes the meeting of the Central Bank of Russia: a 100 bp rate cut is expected. Norway is also likely to cut borrowing costs by 0,25%. Meetings of the central banks of Indonesia (expected rates unchanged), Morocco and Uganda are also scheduled. Today Saudi Arabia opens the doors of its stock exchange to foreign investments.
BUSINESS PLACE STILL UP 20% SINCE JANUARY
After three sessions down and two up, the balance of the week of Piazza Affari and the other European Stock Exchanges was slightly positive despite the growing concern about the risk of default of Greece and its possible exit from the euro. After Friday's drop (-1,2%), the Milanese FtseMib index marks a slight increase of 0,1%. Since the beginning of the year, the performance of the Milan Stock Exchange is +20,3%.
Similar trend for the Stoxx600, the overall index of European stock exchanges: +0,1% in the last five sessions. Since the beginning of the year, it marks an increase of 13,6%. On Wall Street, the Stock Exchanges recorded a downward trend: S&P 500 -0,7%, Dow Jones -0,8%, Nasdaq -0,6%.
Government bond rates of countries on the European periphery closed up. The yield of the BTP rose to 2,20% from 2,14%, that of the Spanish bond rose to 2,24% and returned above the Italian bond. Conversely, the yield on the German Bund fell to 0,84% (from 0,88%). The exchange rate did not move: euro/dollar stable at 1,127.
THE AGENDA: IN VIEW OF THE EARTHQUAKE AT THE CDP, STM PAYS THE COUPON
The most delicate appointment for Italian finance falls tomorrow on the occasion of the CDA of the Cassa Depositi e Prestiti. The changing of the guard is looming at the top of the spa controlled by the Treasury and the former banking foundations. The councilors of the Ministry of Economy could resign to let the top management expire and thus give space to the new president, Claudio Costamagna, and to the new CEO (favorite Fabio Gallia).
However, it is not easy to find a plausible explanation for the early dismissal of President Franco Bassanini and CEO Giovanni Gorno Tempini who, Prime Minister Matteo Renzi admits in an interview with Corriere della Sera, "did well".
On the corporate side, today Stm will pay the first tranche (0.09 euro, out of a total to be distributed of 0,35 euro) of the dividend for the 2014 financial year. Also scheduled are the coupon detachment of Alerion (0,045) and Tecnoinvesiimenti (0,047 ). The capital increases of Carige and Aedes continue. The Great Travels operation kicks off.
In the USA, the week will be dominated by corporate meetings. The most important meeting concerns General Electric. Discussions with partners in Abercrombie & Fitch, Celgene, Expedia, Groupon, San Disk, Dollar Tree, TripAdvisors and Time Warner are also scheduled.
MPS, AFTER THE INCREASE COMES THE TIME OF CHOICES
Great movements are in the air in the construction site of the Italian banks. By mid-October, the Popolari will have to prepare the road map with the initiatives and timing to adapt to the reform desired by the Renzi government which provides for the obligation for institutions with assets exceeding 8 billion to transform themselves into joint-stock companies within 18 months. The expiry is foreseen by the secondary provisions implementing the reform issued on Friday by the Bank of Italy.
Meanwhile, today, the first test for Banca Monte Paschi after the positive conclusion of the capital increase, subscribed at 99,6%. Only in the next few days will there be a precise measure of the new shareholding map, which should include various hedge funds. It is easy to foresee the enlargement of the current shareholding rate to three (Fondazione, Btg Pactual and Fintech), today at 7%, to 1,7% of Falciai. Then it will be the turn of the appointment of Alessandro Profumo's successor to the presidency.
Before that, other matches will be played, inside and outside Siena: the return of the Monti bonds; the entry of the Treasury as a 4% shareholder; waiting for the long-awaited package of measures on the Bad Bank that could see the light in the next few weeks. At that point, the negotiations for the integration with another partner will be able to take shape, as desired by the ECB.
PRADA -6% SINKS AFTER THE ACCOUNTS
A difficult day is looming for luxury stocks, under the Prada effect. The share of the Milanese brand suffered a drop of 6,04% on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange as a reaction to the disappointing results for the first quarter which closed with a net profit of 58,7 million euros, clearly lower than consensus expectations which stood at around 85,2 million euros. The figure is also down sharply compared to 105,3 million in the same period a year ago.
Revenues grew by 6,5% to 828,2 million euros, slightly above the 818 million estimated by analysts. Turnover grew only thanks to the exchange rate effect: at constant exchange rates it fell by 5,4%. As regards margins, Ebit fell to 90,70 million euros from 156,3 million. The company reported that the first few months of 2015 did not show clear signs of recovery in the Pacific area, particularly in Hong Kong and Macao.
SAIPEM, SOVEREIGN FUNDS ALSO COMING SOON
Still in the spotlight Saipem, after the rumors, never confirmed, about a capital increase to be carried out probably with the launch of a capital increase of 2,5 billion, necessary to restore balance to the financial structure currently burdened by a debt of 4,6 .XNUMX billion and thus facilitate the deconsolidation of the company from Eni accounts.
The operation could coincide with the arrival of new stable partners. The Sovereign Funds of Qatar and Kuwait could support the Fondo Strategico Italiano (FSI), the operating arm of Cassa Depositi e Prestiti. Citigroup took a "strong" position on the stock, moving its recommendation to Buy from the previous Sell. The target price was raised to 12,6 euros from the previous 8 euros.
FCA, CONTINUE PRESSING ON GM. WAITING FOR THE ALPHA
The countdown for the new Alfa begins. In ten days, in the completely renovated building in the historic center of Arese, the first of eight cars will be presented which, in Sergio Marchionne's plans, should sell 400.000 units by 2018. Production will begin in Cassino, where investments have been made one billion, immediately after the summer to arrive on the market at the beginning of 2016.
Meanwhile, despite the refusal coming from Detroit, the pressure on GM continues, which has requested and obtained from Morgan Stanley that analyst Adam Jonas, one of the few who has expressed himself in favor of the merger, be temporarily suspended from covering the securities of the two groups.
