Europe is ever closer to an agreement on the Greek question, but new aid to Athens risks slipping further. The real problem is indeed the conflict between Brussels and the International Monetary Fund on how to reduce the Greek public debt in the next years. The definitive go-ahead for the new loan could therefore be postponed to 3 Decemberwhen Eurozone finance ministers meet again.
“Greece has done what it had to do, now it's up to the Eurogroup and the IMF to do their duty – is the pressure of Olli Rehn, European Commissioner for Economic Affairs -. It is essential to take a decision today, it is important for Greece and for Europe”.
An agreement on accounting measures to reduce Greek debt is expected from today's extraordinary Eurogroup. The main interventions under study are three: interest reduction that Greece has to pay on loans already cashed; return of profits by the ECB made money on Greek bonds in his possession; secondary market repurchase of securities Greeks by the EFSF State-saving Fund or by the Treasury of Athens itself.
These are measures dear to the Germany, which wants to avoid a new restructuring at all costs of the Greek debt. The reason is simple: at the beginning of the year the bonds held by private investors were devalued, so this time it would be necessary to intervene on the bonds held by governments and central banks. The greatest burden would therefore fall on the pockets of European taxpayers. A truly unpopular choice for Chancellor Angela Merkel, who wants to be reconfirmed in the German elections next September.
The interventions supported by Berlin however, they do not convince the IMF, above all because they would not allow the Greek debt to be brought back to a level considered sustainable (120% of GDP) by 2020, as was the agreement. An extension of at least two years would be needed, but the IMF does not intend to grant it e pushes for the measures proposed by the Europeans to be accompanied by a new restructuring.
According to the latest rumors, after a secret meeting in Paris between the finance ministers of the Eurozone, even the German Wolfgang Schaeuble would by now be resigned to accepting this solution.
Meanwhile, however, the spokesman for the Berlin government, Steffen Seibert, reiterated that “a new cut in Greece's debt is not an issue. And it is not so for many Eurozone countries”.
