There is no crisis yet, but it is already time to reckon. If the Letta government does not survive Berlusconi's decadence, the polls may not be the only solution. The idea of an encore is well present in the horizons of the parliamentarians, and Renato Brunetta has no doubts: "It will certainly happen", the PDL group leader told the Chamber yesterday, arguing that the parliamentarians willing to change groups "are about 20, we already know names too. In the Senate, what is expected is a majority between Pd, Sel and those who have escaped from the 5 Star Movement ".
Brunetta doesn't say it, but a group of pidiellini deserters could also be in the game. Not only that: according to the latest rumors filtered in Arcore, there would be even 16 senators in the odor of betrayal, against the eight who could leave the ranks of the M5S. These would mostly be the miracle workers in the last elections, senators who do not believe in their chances of returning to Palazzo Madama, even assuming that the party is willing to re-nominate them. In short, it's better to betray than lose your seat.
If this were really the scenario - considering that in the Chamber, thanks to the Porcellum, the center-left already has an absolute majority - the numbers for the Letta bis would already be acquired.
For Palazzo Madama's go-ahead, at least 158 votes are needed: adding the 137 from the Pd-Scelta civica block to the 24 possible defectors and the four former grillini already moved to the mixed group, the result is 165. Quite a lot. The vote of the four life senators appointed last week by the Head of State would not even be necessary, although they would not lack their support, bringing the total count to 169.
All resolved, then? Not exactly. The surprise could come from Civic Choice: “We are already struggling to assert ourselves with the Pd and Pdl – reasons the leader Mario Monti -, with Vendola and Grillo it would be even more complicated. We would benefit more from staying out." It is no small matter: if the 16 seats of the SC are subtracted, the share of the encore in the Senate drops back to 153 votes below the absolute majority threshold.
The President of the Republic, however, intends to avoid a return to the polls before the electoral reform at all costs, and it does not seem a credible scenario that it is Monti himself who determines the bankruptcy of the Quirinale. On the other hand, if the President of Bocconi really wants to withdraw, not all of his senators are necessarily willing to follow him.
Any new government should therefore be based on a large group of defectors and for this very reason it is unlikely that it will really be a Letta bis. From the Democratic Party they let it be known that the current Prime Minister would never agree to lead a new Executive governed by such an uncertain majority. The most accredited name for this role is that of Piero Grasso, now president of the Senate, who could organize a team with a reduced mandate. Electoral reform and stability law, these are the two objectives of the possible government crammed with deserters.
