The craziest political crisis in the world is now reaching a turning point that may not be decisive but certainly very important. All the spotlights are on the Communications on the crisis that Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte will give in the Senate hall at 15 pm.
There are those who say that Conte will not tell them and will harshly reply to the last reckless moves of the Northern League leader Matteo Salvini, which heralded a motion of no confidence against the Head of Government M5S-Lega only to regret it comically. In that way, a gap will be dug between Conte and the League and between the Five Stars and the League that will be difficult to fill.
Ma What will happen after Conte's communications? Will the no-confidence motions be voted on, fully parliamentarizing the already virtually open government crisis or not? It is unlikely, although not excluded, but a lot will depend on Conte. After the confrontation in the Senate - with or without the vote - the premier will go up to the Quirinale to report to the Head of State and a new scenario will open up here. Conte could go to Colle to resign or just to report on the state of the crisis. If he resigns, as is likely, Mattarella will open the consultations between Wednesday and Thursday to check if it is possible to form another government but in this case the Chamber of Deputies will not be able to vote on the reduction of the cut in parliamentarians scheduled for Thursday.
In short, after Conte's communications, the government crisis will come alive and all political forces will be forced to reveal their cards. Conte will have to do it but also the three main political forces: the League (will he confirm his distrust of the premier or not?), the Five Stars (will they reopen the dialogue with Salvini, judged "unreliable" on Sunday and will prepare to support a single-sided Conte or to start talks with the Democratic Party for a new government?) and the Democratic Party (will it choose the path of an institutional government indicated by Renzi or will it attempt the very arduous one of a legislature government with M5S? Or will it take refuge in view of the elections?)
The scenarios are different and it will certainly be decisive the opinion of President Mattarella but if we were to bet now, face down, it would seem that we could say that the hypothesis of a single-colored Conte government directly supported by the Five Stars and supported - perhaps with the formula of no confidence - by those who are in it (starting from the Democratic Party) seems the most practicable. In a subordinate position institutional government or electoral guarantee invoked by Renzi to block Salvini's way, postpone the elections by launching the budget maneuver to avoid raising VAT and cutting the number of parliamentarians.
At present, the other options (League-Five Star reconciliation, Five Star-Pd legislature government, early elections in October) seem less likely but anything can still happen.
