Conte revived, Conte bis, Pd-M5S government, M5S minority government, early voting. All these options are possible after the Senate on Tuesday rejected the League's request to vote no confidence in Giuseppe Conte before August 5th. The new calendar - approved with the votes of an unprecedented majority: M20S, Pd, Leu and Autonomie - provides for the Prime Minister to return to report in the Chamber on Tuesday XNUMX August.
What will happen next? At the moment, the only solution that can be ruled out is the one suggested at Palazzo Madama by Matteo Salvini, who - perhaps bluffing - proposed to the now former allies of the M5S to definitively approve the cut in parliamentarians and then return to the vote immediately after . The Quirinale has made it clear that it would never agree to dissolve the Chambers before the constitutional reform comes into force, because it would mean evading a decision by Parliament. In the event of the green light to amend the Charter, therefore, the legislature would have to continue for at least eight months, the time necessary to carry out the confirmatory referendum and, in the event of a victory for the Yes vote, to materially organize the reduction of seats. In the meantime, the electoral law should also be changed in an even more proportional sense.
Therefore, having discarded the "constitutional reform + elections immediately" scenario, five more remain in the field.
1) COUNT REMAINS IN OFFICE
The most obvious, if Salvini really wanted to approve the cut in parliamentarians, is the withdrawal of the motion of no confidence in the Conte government by the League. It would be a sensational and at the moment unlikely step back, above all because it would risk having a cost for the Carroccio in electoral terms. However, a possibility remains.
2) COUNT BIS (OF PURPOSE)
Alternatively, Movimento 5 Stelle and Lega could reach an agreement to give life to a new executive, this time with a more technical slant and with three precise objectives: to complete the constitutional reform, enact the budget law preventing the VAT increase and lead the country to elections with a new electoral law.
3) PD-M5S GOVERNMENT (LEGISLATURE)
If, on the other hand, the League decides to withdraw, the Colle could verify if there is a new majority in Parliament similar to the one that voted on the new calendar of works on Tuesday: M5S, Pd and Leu. The negotiations for a legislative agreement – hypothesis relaunched a few days ago by Matteo Renzi – continue under the radar, but it is a complex negotiation. The secretary of the Democratic Party, Nicola Zingaretti, has always said he is against this perspective, but the majority of dem parliamentarians (chosen at the time by Renzi) do not agree with him.
4) MINORITY GOVERNMENT M5S
A further possibility is that the balances for a minority government emerge from the consultations at Colle. It would be a one-color five-star executive that for each measure would have to find in Parliament the votes of a different ally with which to reach the majority. For example, the League on constitutional reform and the Democratic Party on the budget law.
5) EARLY ELECTIONS
The return to the polls loudly demanded by Salvini - but also by the rest of the center-right and by Zingaretti - is the most dangerous prospect. And not for political evaluations, but because going to the vote between the end of October and the beginning of November would in all likelihood prevent the maneuver from being approved by December 31st and any delay would trigger the 23 billion VAT increases.
