Prepare for the worst. Although it is not easy to imagine a worse situation than that, victims of yet another harakiri of the political class, the markets of the Bel Paese are preparing to face today, in a torrid climate not only in terms of weather. At 9 Mario Draghi will be in the Chamber, where he will announce his intention to go up to the Quirinale to resign to the President of the Republic. Shortly afterwards, around 10 am, the awaited meeting of the ECB will get underway in Frankfurt which will sanction, for the first time in eleven years, an increase in interest rates, 25 or (more likely) 50 points to support the euro and curb inflation. But the real unknown lies in the anti-spread plan. Who will trust the guarantees of reliability of the Italian debt after Draghi's dismissal? The plan developed by the technicians to support the BTPs against speculation risks being buried before being born.
The positive note is that Moscow reopened the North Stream gas tap at 4 in the morning. Only 40%, probably, just to keep Europe on its toes. But today the Tsar of the Kremlin has something to be satisfied with: the three Italian leaders closest to Russia (Conte, Salvini and Berlusconi) have brought down the Draghi pro-Atlantic government. This blend promises to result in a horror opening. “Today's Italian drama – says Vitor Constancio, Draghi's former deputy at the ECB – anticipates the perfect storm for the ECB tomorrow”.
Expected opening in the red, the gap with the Bunds above 230 points
Piazza Affari, which yesterday was the worst price list in Europe (-1,60%) is starting to open in the red: derivatives, according to yesterday evening's indications from the trading rooms, show a drop of 2,50% .
A relapse on the bond market is inevitable: the gap between the BTPs and the Bunds rose to 237 yesterday evening but this morning, especially if no strong words come from Lagarde, there is a risk of approaching 250 points. Or even higher, towards 300 points , given the bad recovery that is announced for public finances after the strong improvements highlighted yesterday by Draghi.
The BTP two years worse than Greece
The yield on two-year bonds has exceeded that of Greece: we are perceived as more risky than Athens.
The end of the Draghi government freezes or sinks important economic dossiers, placing a mortgage on the next budget session which opens in September with the launch of the Nadef, the update note of the Def. And it ends by December with the approval of the budget law for 2023, to be presented in Brussels by 15 October and to Parliament by 20 October. Now there is a risk of provisional exercise if 31 December is bypassed.
Opening in red for the Nasdaq, Netflix flies
The Italian psychodrama helps to extinguish the euphoria of the price lists. The Nasdaq, which gained 1,6% yesterday, is heading towards a negative opening today. Streaming service companies, revived by Netflix's quarterly announcements, stood out above all: the stock closed up by more than 7%.
Leading stocks in the tech sector closed strongly higher, starting with Apple and Amazon. Contrasted Tesla: the company closed the second quarter above analysts' expectations. The stock managed to gain more than 3%, but then retraced itself, in line with the trend of futures.
Tokyo tied: the BoJ does not change its policy
Price lists are mixed in Asia Pacific this morning. Hong Kong's Hang Seng -1,4%. Kospi of Seoul +0,7%. BSE Sensex of Mumbai +0,2%. CSI 300 of the Shanghai and Shenzen price lists -0,5%.
Tokyo Nikkei on parity after the decisions of the Central Bank of Japan. Although inflation is above the alert threshold, the board of the central bank has decided not to raise rates and to confirm the ultra-expansive monetary policy. Just one change: forecasts on inflation are increasing, expected at 2,3% in the next quarter (against 1,9%).
Moscow reopens the taps: energy in decline
Raw materials are down again this morning, especially energy. WTI oil is trading at $98,8, down 1%. Texas crude dropped 4,2% yesterday. Gold at medium-term lows, for the first time below the $1.700 barrier at $1.692, down 0,3%.
Internal 3-year Treasury Notes at 3,21% below the two-year at 0,62%. Real rates, those adjusted for inflation, move little, around XNUMX% over ten years.
On the ECB Communications Day, scheduled for 14.15pm today, the euro-dollar traded at 1,022, up 0,4%.
Elon Musk sells Bitcoin at a loss
Bitcoin opens the session down 1,4%, at $22.900. Yesterday, it hit a one-month high price at $24.275.
Tesla sold a significant portion of its stake in the cryptocurrency at a loss: “We converted about 75% of our Bitcoin purchases into currency at the end of the second quarter,” Tesla said in a letter to shareholders released yesterday. "Conversions in the second quarter added $936 million in cash to our cash balance." Tesla CEO Elon Musk said on his analyst conference call that the company sold Bitcoin to maximize its cash position amid uncertainty surrounding the Covid-induced lockdowns and specified that the sale should not be seen as “some sort of verdict on Bitcoin”.
