La Germany is facing a new and profound Government crisis. In a decision that surprised many, the Chancellor Olaf Scholz fired Finance Minister Christian Lindner, leader of the liberal party (FDP), putting an end to the so-called "traffic light coalition" between the Social Democrats (SPD), the Greens and the Liberals. The coalition, which lasted just a few months and was already one of the shortest in German history, now risks leading the country to new elections, maybe already by the end of March 2025Meanwhile, the opposition Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) parliamentary group has asked Scholz to bring forward the vote of confidence in the Bundestag, asking for a vote as early as next week.
Following Lindner's dismissal, the Chancellor has assigned the Ministry of Finance a Joerg Kukies, a trusted economist of the SPD, current State Secretary in the Federal Chancellery and a figure very close to the Chancellor. Kukies thus takes up the post at a particularly critical political moment, with the task of managing the 2025 budget and the delicate funds for military and civilian support to Ukraine.
German Government Crisis: Reasons for Scholz-Lindner Split
The decision to replace Lindner came after days of growing tensions within the coalition, aggravated by the difficulty of finding an agreement on how to find the approximately 10 billion euros needed to finance the 2025 budget and cover the costs related to the aid and arms supplies to Ukraine. The liberals, faithful to their line of fiscal austerity, have firmly opposed the idea of increasing public debt to finance support packages for Kiev, proposing instead to find other sources to support the economic commitments made with the allied partner. Furthermore, Lindner - during a meeting between party leaders - would have openly asked the chancellor to prepare the ground for new early elections, a hypothesis that Scholz categorically rejected, believing that it was necessary to remain in office until January 15, 2025 to try to pass the fundamental economic laws for the country.
To further complicate the situation, a tense international context has been added: in addition to the Donald Trump's victory, which came as a shock to Berlin, there is also the risk of tariffs of between 10% and 20% on German exports, amounting to around 200 billion euros, a significant economic impact.
The breakup was in the air, but the chancellor's move had the flavour of a pre-emptive move: when the liberals seemed ready to leave the government, Scholz decided to fire Lindner early, taking control of the crisis himself.
The exchange between Scholz and Lindner
At 21pm on Wednesday, November 6, Scholz called a press conference. In a resolute tone, he explained his choice: “I am forced to take this step to prevent damage to our country. We need an effective government that has the strength to take the necessary decisions,” he declared. Then he announced that on January 15 he will ask for the confidence of Parliament, but in all likelihood, if he does not obtain it, he will open the way to new elections “by the end of March.” And finally, he launched very harsh words against Lindner: “Too many times he has betrayed my trust, too many times he has engaged in petty game tactics.”
The wait was not long in coming Lindner's response, who spoke in a livestream, explaining that he could not give in to Scholz's demand to ease the debt brake: "I could not do that, it would have violated my oath of office." He also accused the chancellor of having "calculated" the breakup, leaving the country "in a serious situation of insecurity."
What happens now? A minority government and the rush to elections
With the exit of the Liberals, who held the ministries of Justice, Transport and Education, the coalition semaphore no longer has a majority in Parliament. Scholz now finds himself at the head of a "lame" government supported only by the Socialist Party, led by Lars Klingbeil, and the Greens, represented by Robert Habeck and Annalena Baerbock. Without the support of the liberals, the chancellor will be forced to seek external alliances to the coalition to keep the government operational, with the German press already predicting a possible return to the polls in the near future.
To clarify the future of the government, Scholz will meet the President of the Republic Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who also summoned opposition leader Friedrich Merz. Steinmeier will be the one to manage this delicate phase of the institutional crisis, from the headquarters of the presidency at Schloss Bellevue, as happens in Italy with the Quirinale in moments of political crisis.
