The latest report by Goldman Sachs analysts has severely condemned Italy, which in these days is trying to find a common ground with Europe on the financial maneuver to avoid the start of the infringement procedure. “Italy casts a dark cloud” over European markets and “things may have to get worse before we see an improvement”. US analysts "expect the most likely catalyst for a return to fiscal discipline to be further market pressure and once the fog clears we see several reasons to remain strategically constructive", the report continues.
According to Goldman Sachs, strong uncertainty on the European markets for 2019 could depend on Italy, with "the budget crisis remaining unresolved and the Italian economy that we expect will 'flirt' with the recession at the beginning of next year". Indeed, the forecasts of the Americans are among the worst: the estimate of a growth of the peninsula at 0,4% next year is confirmed against the 1% of the consensus of the analyzes and the +1,5% hoped for by the Conte government.
Commenting on Goldman Sachs' forecasts on the Italian economy, the president of Confindustria Vincenzo Boccia defined them as "premature".
From Brussels, the Vice-President of the Commission Valdis Dombrovskis remains cautious on the negotiations between the Italian government and the European Commission: "In recent weeks we have seen a change of tone, the Italian government is ready to discuss and commit to changing its budgetary trajectory but it's just about changing the tone of the discussion but having a consistent correction,” he said.
“We are currently having intense discussions with Italy. The debt procedure was justified, the states confirmed it and now the ball is in Italy's court,” Dombrovskis said as he joined the Eurogroup. “I just had a meeting with Tria and we discussed just that. But now we await the next steps ”of Italy,“ we have to see what concrete steps it will take ”, he added.
Even the economic affairs commissioner Pierre Moscovici is cautious. "We continue the dialogue to find a solution and in the meantime we continue to prepare our decision because the process of the procedure has been started and the States have supported it", he said, answering a question about Italy when joining the Eurogroup.
“There are new proposals and ideas on the table that go in the right direction but the gap with the rules of the Stability Pact is still large and therefore we are not there yet”, he added.
The Italian maneuver "will attract a lot of attention" to the Eurogroup, "we know that there is a very constructive dialogue underway between the Commission and the Italian Government, it is important to bring all the States to respect the rules of the Pact and this is what we will also ask for in the conclusions of the Eurogroup”, said the president of the Eurogroup Mario Centeno instead.
