"If we could pretend that the world didn't have Europe and Japan, the world economy would be fine," said Jim O'Neill, the president of Asset Management at Goldman Sachs. A statement based on the 'surprise index': this 'Surprise Index' takes into account how many times the statistics released have turned out to be higher or lower than analysts' forecasts. And, as regards the two largest economies in the world, the USA and China (alone they make up a third of the world economy), this index gives comforting readings: for America it is at 57, up from a -65 June; for China, we are at 27 compared to the minimum, also in June, of -88.
The survey on fund managers' opinions, released on November 13 by Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, reveals that global growth expectations are the best since February 2011, and, as far as China is concerned, the best for three years. The markets are mainly held back by political uncertainties: the 'fiscal cliff' in the USA and Greece/Spain in Europe.
