The eyes of the world are on the UK. The wait for the referendum on London's exit from the European Union continues to condition the performance of the markets: from bonds to shares, passing through currencies, for days all sectors have been affected by fears about Brexit.
Experts, analysts and economists have already begun to calculate what the impact of the possible departure of the United Kingdom from the EU could be. A chorus of voices which, in unison and without any discordant interpretation, herald "problems" from a political, economic and social point of view.
International fears are also confirmed by polls, which now seem to all agree on the failure of the "Remain Campaign": according to theIndependent, Brexit would currently lead by 10 points which becomes 6 for the Guardian and 2 for the Financial Times. Sun he has no doubts about the London spill. Last Tuesday, the famous British tabloid hit the newsstands with a headline that went around the world “BeLeave in Britain and vote to quit the EU”.
Returning to the markets, the stock market week of the main European markets was not easy at all. Leaving aside yesterday's rebound due to the umpteenth Fed slowdown, the continental stock markets continue to ring in negative performances, with Piazza Affari leading the ranking of losses (today -1,9%).
To confirm the growing fear that investors have towards Brexit is also the performance of the pound, which over the last month has lost considerably ground against other international currencies. The British currency is worth about 1,416 dollars today, down from 1,42 yesterday. According to analysts' forecasts, if the Yes vote wins the June 23 referendum, the UK currency could fall by a further 10%.
The experts at Goldman Sachs predicted the double-digit decline, who in the recent past had already predicted the shift of investors towards safer currencies.
“If we vote to leave the EU and uncertainty increases as it did after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, we expect the pound to weaken by around 11% in trade-weighted terms, against a basket of major currencies ”, reads a note published by the investment bank. The Bank of England also agreed with the forecast, which today warned the markets about the possible (abrupt) fall of the British currency in the event of Brexit, also confirming the possible economic risks for the United Kingdom and global markets.
But the consequences will not only be felt on the pound. According to estimates, in the event that London were to leave the EU, the euro could lose around 4%, as opposed to other currencies such as the yen and the Swiss franc, which could rise by 14% and 8% respectively. %. The Norwegian krone could also appreciate by around 3%.
Forecasts aside, one week after the referendum, fears continue to grow. And, taking a look at the polls, investors are not entirely wrong.
