In the United States there is a cold war between two different ways of giving credit and providing financial services. The largest investment bank on the planet, Goldman Sachs, threw the stone into the pond, which said that the US shadow banking system could steal at least $11 billion in annual profits over the next five years. traditional lenders.
The emergence of non-bank lenders such as asset managers and firms like LendingClub Corp. and CommonBond Inc. in the United States is creating more competition for big banks, the two Goldman Sachs analysts recall Ryan M. Nash and Eric Beardsley heard from Bloomberg. In short, the stricter rules on capital and above all technological advances are driving the growth of the shadow banking system compared to the big traditional players, stronger but also less dynamic. Shadow banking offers services and financing like the old traditional banks but unlike the latter they have less regulatory rigidities, and so they are particularly successful during periods of volatility and low returns. The economist P. McCulley was the first to talk about shadow banking in 2007 in a Pimco report on the Global Central Bank focus. A recent history, therefore, which starts with the deregulation of the American financial system and in the 80s with the passing of the Glass-Steagall Act, the law which differentiated from the 30s the commercial banks from investment banks. Shadow banking had a period of slowdown during the 2007-2008 crisis but then quickly recovered.
“We expect major changes in the credit landscape over the next five to 10 years, with new entrants emerging and some assets placed outside the perimeter of the banking system,” Goldman Sachs analysts said. “US banks made about $150 billion in 2014, and an estimated $11 billion, equal to 7 percent of annual profits, could be the prerogative of these new competitors in the next five years” predicted the two analysts.
How is this change possible? Online lenders in the US are becoming serious competitors to traditional banks, which have historically dominated the lending industry. Bankruptcy start-ups tend to offer loans at lower interest rates than large banks because they operate with lower infrastructure costs and also reduce risk by gathering more information about debtors and filtering bankruptcy probabilities more skillfully. But if in America the competition is fierce in Europe it's another story, why bank credit covers 80% of the loans.
