The victory of the No vote in the constitutional referendum to be held between the end of November and the beginning of December could have repercussions not only on politics, but also on the banks.
Goldman Sachs assigns a 40% probability of success of the No, lower number than that suggested by the polls, but still very high. Based on the analysis of the experts of the American institute, in the event that the votes against the reform prevail, the risk that Italy will go to early elections is not very high, but it would still represent a setback for the progress of the reforms that the country needs for growth. In the wake, the market recapitalization possibilities of the weakest Italian banks would also be reduced, starting with Mps. On the other hand, minor problems would arise for government bonds, supported by Mario Draghi's bazooka.
According to Goldman Sachs forecasts, the referendum will be set for November 20 or 27. A Yes victory should lead to the adoption of more incisive structural reforms. If instead the No wins and Renzi decides to resign as previously announced, analysts predict that President Mattarella will facilitate a government reshuffle, with an enlargement of the majority.
