In Italy, the question of the retirement age is one of those that make elections win or lose. We realized it on March 4th. We will see what measures the yellow-green government will adopt which, in the text of the contract signed by the "gentlemen" Luigi Di Maio and Matteo Salvini, agreed to turn to the Fornero reform with a laconic "stop", after having played for a long time with other and more direct malicious words (abrogation, overcoming, etc.). The arguments that are brought in support of these positions are above all two, intersected with each other: the elderly are forced to delay their retirement, so the young are unable to find work. It has by now become commonplace: every time the news comment on the Istat data on employment, they add to us, to the obvious disappointment of the hosts, that precarious work is growing (despite the fact that since 2012 there have been 500 less semi-subordinate employment relationships) and that of the elderly, because they add immediately after Italy has the highest level of retirement age in the EU. Maybe, sometimes it happens that we find a way to comment on demographic trends too, pointing out, with concern, that both a collapse in the birth rate and an increase in the aging process are underway. But no one bothers to link these trends to labor market supply-side problems and the sustainability of the pension system.
In order to ascertain, thus, that the need for longer working time, during the course of a life destined to last longer, is not dictated only by needs for financial balance, but by the need to have, in companies, people still able to "run" the machines. According to Istat forecasts on the country's demographic future, survival is expected to increase. Within half a century, the average life span would increase by five years for both genders, reaching 86,1 years for men and 90,2 years for women. Part of the ongoing aging process is due to the transit of the baby boom cohorts (1961-1976), the same ones whose requirements today would like to reduce the requirements for access to retirement (moreover early) among the late active age (39 -64 years) and senile age (65 years and over). A peak of aging is expected between 2045-2050 when the share over 65 will be 34%. In this context, where is the problem if the share of over-XNUMXs still in business increases? It is true, in Italy the increase occurred abruptly compared to other countries and to the average data of the Union and the Eurozone.
According to the 2018 Pension Adeguacy Report (see table at the bottom), from 2013 to 2016 there was an 8% increase in employment in Italy in the 55-64 age group, compared to an average of 5 % in both the EU and the euro area. Only Latvia and Hungary had a more sustained increase. The fact is that in Italy we started from 42%, a share 8 points lower than the averages mentioned above; a share which, again with reference to the same averages, was still 2016 points lower in 5 (50% compared to 55%). The differences with the virtuous countries of Northern Europe are very significant. Employment in that age cohort (55-64) is 75% in Sweden, 68% in Denmark, 67% in Germany, 63% in the United Kingdom. Behind us - to remain within the context of the large countries - France with 49% and Spain with 46%. With some delay, we could boast that we have achieved the 50% employment target for older workers, set at Lisbon 2000, when the Union looked to its future with confidence, proposing to "become the knowledge-based economy most competitive and dynamic market in the world, capable of achieving sustainable economic growth with more and better jobs and greater social cohesion".
But it would be useless to recall a dream world soon marred by nightmares. Italy has made some worthy steps forward in recent years of appreciation, thanks to the now contested reforms. It is interesting to note how these data are divided according to gender. In our country, in 2016, 50% of men and 55% of women contributed to determining 64% (compared to the reference population) of employees aged between 61,7 and 39,7. Behind us, as far as female employment is concerned, only Poland, Malta, Luxembourg, Slovenia, Hungary and Greece.
