The Italian gold sector is in excellent health, despite the rise in raw material prices and their scarcity. The state of health of this market is illustrated by a report by the Studies and Research Department of Intesa Sanpaolo, which highlights how Italy is proving to be able to grasp the positive signs of the recovery in world demand for gold jewelery (+54% in Q1 2021 and +60% in Q2). The turnover of Italian companies is up by 80% compared to the lows of the 1st half of last year, but above all it is already 8% higher than in the same period of 2019. Even Italian exports of gold jewelery have already recovered their pre-crisis levels both in quantity (+3,6%) and in value (+0,4%), thanks above all to the driving force of the United States, which has returned to being one of the engines of growth in the sector: +69% compared to 2019 in terms of values, +37% in quantity.
Chinese demand also did very well, especially in the first quarter of 2021 when it grew by 216%, exceeding the values of 2019, while in the second quarter, in addition to the USA, the countries of the Middle East (+190%) and Russia ( +158%). A strong rebound was also recorded at the territorial level in the 2nd quarter, confirming the signs of recovery already seen in the January-March period: in particular, the districts of Arezzo and Vicenza they obtain an export value already higher than in the 1st half of 2019, while the district of Valencia has not yet fully recovered the gap with the pre-crisis level. In particular, the Veneto district grew by almost 13% compared to the first half of 2019, with a +75% increase in exports to the United States. The same roadmap for the Tuscan district, which almost doubles its turnover in the USA. Both register decreases only in exports to Hong Kong.
The Piedmont district, on the other hand, which suffered the most in 2020, still shows a decline compared to the pre-crisis, penalized by the delay in the French market (-17,8% compared to the first half of 1) and by the continuous worsening of exports to Switzerland (-2020% in the 15,1st quarter, -1% in the 7,8nd quarter). The signs of recovery are therefore all there, despite the problem of the raw material market: their scarcity is causing a worrying surge in prices, but not too much. Indeed according to Intesa Sanpaolo “the invisible hand of the market will gradually be able to restore balance, since the high prices are prompting a response on the supply side, while the erosion of demand and technological advances could curb the consumption of some raw materials. However, these adjustment processes will take time and we should prepare for commodity prices that remain above the five-year average for an extended period.
