Bad signs for Abenomics. In the second quarter of 2015 Japan's GDP fell by 1,6% compared to the same period last year and 0,4% compared to the January-March period: the contraction is less than expected (analysts had forecast an average of -1,9% over the year and -0,5% over the quarter), but it is sufficient to keep under pressure the Bank of Japan and the government of Shinzo Abe to vary new monetary or fiscal stimulus measures. For gross domestic product, this is the first negative change since the third quarter of 2014.
They weighed on the Japanese economy the decline in exports (-4,4%), a symptom of the impact of the Chinese slowdown – which makes a sustained rebound in the following quarter difficult – e the decline in private consumption (-0,8%), the first since the second quarter of last year.
It is probable that, faced with these numbers, Bank of Japan to revise 1,5 growth forecasts down again to 2015%, already reduced to 1,7% from the initial 2%.
At this point the markets bet on new interventions (the Tokyo Stock Exchange closed up 0,4%). A new dose of is not excluded Quantitative easing, which however could cause a new devaluation, still weighing on the purchasing power of families, already affected by the rise in food prices. For this reason it is more likely that the government decides to launch fiscal policy measures in favor of families.
The budget inabenomics, in figures, remains disappointing for now: since December 2012, GDP has grown by 2%, after stimuli equal to 3%. The government has failed to push companies to raise salaries or investments within the country.
