It is not so much the Success of the pro-Nazis of the AfD (Alternative für Deutschland) at the ballot boxes of two former GDR states, Thuringia and Saxony, which worries Professor Angelo Bolaffi, philosopher and political scientist, attentive connoisseur of the Germany and former director of the Italian Cultural Institute in Berlin. The folkloristic, though dangerous, far-right populists, led by Björn Höcke, are only the fever, while Germany's disease is the growing and, it would seem, inexorable economic and political decline. In short, last week's vote, which seriously punished the Greens and Liberals, reducing the SPD, revealed what had already been evident for quite some time: that the German government is weak and unpopular.
Professor Bolaffi, The Red-Green coalition is the big loser of these elections, but why did East Germans vote for an avowedly pro-Nazi party?
“Let's go in order. First of all, AfD is not an Eastern party, it was born in West Germany, in Hesse to be precise, in 2013, founded by a group of liberal, Eurosceptic economists, who had been against the euro. Opinion makers like there were at the time in Germany, and not only, who believed that abandoning the national currency was wrong, a position also defended by the Bundesbank at the time. However, in 2015, with Merkel's famous choice to open the borders to Syrian migrants and others, under the banner of "we can do it", the issue of uncontrolled immigration arrives on the German political scene, and begins to dictate the new agenda. While Covid gives rise to a particularly strong anti-vax movement in the Eastern regions. The short circuit that transformed AfD from a Eurosceptic, conservative and reactionary party, into a populist and radical one follows. But it is not over because within the same party a power struggle has subsequently occurred between a moderate wing and a radical wing, the latter led by the leader who has now won the elections, Björn Höcke. Are they Nazis? We have learned from the classics that no one dives twice in the same river, so it cannot be said in this way; let's say, however, that this leader and his movement are a tenacious opponent of that current of critical revision of the past that has been cultivated in Germany for some time. They have gone from provocation to provocation, up to the statements of the MEP Maximilian Krah on the SS not all criminals that horrified even Marine Le Pen.”
How dangerous are they?
“They are certainly dangerous, yet I would say that they have an aspect of crudeness that does not allow them to go beyond a certain electorate. Of course, if this Höcke were to step aside to make room for a less provocatively pro-Nazi leader, if the party were only radically conservative and reactionary, it is likely that it could get even more votes. However, we must add to this an important fact, namely that the eastern regions, Thuringia, Saxony, Brandenburg, Saxony-Anhalt from a demographic and electoral point of view represent 15% of Germany. Therefore, one cannot and must not project the victory in these Länder at a general German level. What one can project instead is the political weakness of the traditional parties, starting with those of the government and the figure of the chancellor”.
From what he says it seems that the unification of Germany has not yet been done, there is still an “East” and a “West”…
“There is a reading of the German facts, especially in Italy, that believes that there was an annexation of the Eastern regions that was punitive for those citizens. This is not true. In these regions today people live much better than they did during the GDR, economically and socially, just visit Erfurt, Leipzig, Dresden. They are even more advanced than many cities in the West. What there is instead is a general cultural resentment and on this cultural resentment there is an ongoing debate in Germany that sees two opposing positions: one that accuses the citizens of the East of being “deplorables”, to use a term that Clinton used, that is, citizens who do not appreciate liberal and Western democracy and are therefore potentially fascists; and the other which instead believes that this cultural and anti-Western reaction descends from other reasons, first of all demographic impoverishment, since in the East there has been a strong emigration of the best forces, and especially of women, towards the West which has left the most isolated and distant provinces empty with the result that those who have remained to live there, especially elderly men and angry young people, think that the most provocative thing to do, against the communist past and against the West, is to vote Nazi”.
What do you think of it?
“Not to sound ecumenical, but both things are true. First of all, in the former GDR there is an enormous cultural delay: it is a country that went from a Nazi dictatorship to a Communist one, we are talking about generations that have never known free elections, free thought. Secondly, while in the West a critical re-elaboration of the past was taking place, in the GDR anti-fascism was elevated to a state myth: everyone had to be anti-fascist. And for the terrible history they had lived, all the blame was placed on the West, as if the citizens of the East had only been victims. So while in the West self-criticism and maceration were maturing, in the East, nothing. Then there was the great illusion: the Wall is torn down, the money from the West arrives, we all become rich. Without learning how a liberal democracy works. But it is also true that if in the regions of the former GDR they are a hundred times better off than before, it is also true that they are a hundred times less rich than those in the West, because there is real capitalism there, in the East there is nothing. There is only the money given by the West, that is, subsidies. There are nice towns, it is true, universities. But the economic fabric, no, because it takes decades to build it. Like in Italy. We have been dealing with the Southern question for over 150 years. Money, debates, industrializations everywhere... but we are still there: the real wealth is in the North. It is a question of policies, of course, but also of time”.
You spoke of a risk for Europe, why?
“Let's think about it. Where are the conditions for which Europe was born today? Multi-partyism, transatlanticism, mass parties: they no longer exist. How does the Union function? What does it stand on? This Europe was born from the Franco-German relationship. Now France is in crisis and Germany is on the same path: where are we headed? I don't want to be a bird of ill omen, but the situation is complicated. And those who are lulled into thinking that the United States of Europe could be born are deluding themselves”.
Why? You don't believe in the United States of Europe?
“To be honest, I think the concept itself is completely wrong. United States of Europe among whom? Of whom? And what language would we speak? The truth is that if we want to save the Union, because that is what it is, we should start by having a less emphatic, much more functional idea, in which the nation states continue to have their role. Perhaps the five largest nation states, Germany, France, Spain, Italy and perhaps Poland, in the event of an unfortunate victory for Trump, for example, could try to take the lead of a Europe that must think about its own economic and military defense. Of course, not with a European army, very difficult to organize, but with pacts and treaties, as always. In short, we need to review that geopolitical project on which the Union was built without pretensions. Something that Mario Draghi has very clear in his head, the only one who provided the last image of a Europe that counts, the one photographed from the trip he took to Kiev with Scholz and Macron”.
Speaking of economy, another earthquake in Germany is being caused by the Volkswagen crisis: what do you think about it?
“In my opinion, but I say this as a non-expert, this push towards electric cars is a catastrophe. In the sense that not even in Germany, the country where this shift is most present, is electric appreciated. People are afraid, they hesitate. And then electric cars are still expensive. Even the Japanese are being cautious. The only one that is good is Tesla, but it has nothing to do with Germany or even with Europe.”
Let's get back to politics: what should we expect at this point?
“Perhaps we can still count on the CDU. The party that, let us not forget, pulled Germany out of the tragedy of the Second World War: not only does it exist, but it is still strong. And it is the only party in the West that is also voted for in the East.”
But do we have to wait for new elections, or do you think Scholz could resign?
“In the meantime, we are waiting for the vote in Brandenburg, on September 22. The state is led by a Social Democrat. If the SPD loses there too, after Thuringia and Saxony, Scholz’s situation becomes practically unsustainable. At that point there are two alternatives, both very risky for the country: either the Green and SPD deputies pretend nothing is happening and continue until next year; or they make a break by changing the leaders. Perhaps by focusing on the much-loved Defense Minister, Pistorius. But I fear that they will decide to just get by, as often happens in every political family.”
