The Social Democrats led by outgoing Vice Chancellor Olaf Scholz are leading the exit polls of the German elections, but with a narrow lead over the centre-right CDU-CSU coalition, which drops by nine percentage points compared to 2017, it achieved the worst result in its history - especially in Bavaria - but at least recovered compared to the polls on the eve: at the time of the first official results, the result was 26% to 24%, with over 210 seats for the SPD and less than 200, according to initial projections, for Angela Merkel's party, who is leaving the country's leadership after 16 years. The Greens are confirmed in third place, which are the first party in the Land of Berlin (where the Cdu collapses to 15%) but which yield something compared to the forecasts that saw them at a national level at 17%, stopping just below 15%. However, a historic result compared to 8,9% in 2017, even if down compared to the exploit at the Europeans two years ago, when the Gruenens exceeded 20%. For them, the projections speak of 120 seats in the Bundestag.
Following are the Liberals of the FDP, up 12% and around 100 seats in Parliament. The far right of Afd loses consensus, which however remains around 10% and will be able to count on around 80 seats. On the verge the extreme left of the Linke, which in 2017 had exceeded 9% (better than the Greens) and which today according to the exit polls is around 5%, that is, right on the threshold for participating in the proportional distribution of seats: if were this percentage to be confirmed, the seats in the Bundestag would be about forty. Abstention is growing: at 14 pm in 2017 more than 40% of those entitled had voted, today 36%. While waiting for the definitive results, the German press has already unleashed the total coalition: no party has an absolute majority and it is also possible that three are needed to compose a government coalition. At the moment, a two-party government with the SPD and CDU-CSU is also plausible, which together would exceed 400 seats (the threshold is 379), even if both candidates - Scholz and Laschet - had made it clear that they did not want to form a government with the rival.
So here's what the tip of the balance will be Greens and Liberals: it will be with them that either the CDU or – more likely – Scholz's SPD could form a three-way executive, to have a more solid majority, albeit uneven on some issues (the Liberals, for example, are economic hawks, and would like a return to austerity that does not go well with the intentions of the left). On the other hand, an all-left government with the Spd, Greens and Linke should be excluded: the party that asks for open doors for migrants is on the verge of the barrier and should not have enough parliamentarians in its dowry.
