The data on the elections in France had not yet been disclosed before the long wave of socialist victory was already hitting Germany.
The German Finance Minister, Wolfgang Schauble, has clearly taken a stand regarding the demand for wage increases by industrial workers, represented by the powerful union IG Metall, who now want to draw on the resources collected during the long cycle of productivity growth – triggered by the reforms of Schroder of 2003 – to get salary increases of up to 6,5%.
In this perspective, last week some strikes showed that even the German locomotive is not immune from the risk of growing social tensions, especially in an economic situation in which growth estimates for Berlin are less optimistic, in the light of the European recession.
Schauble then struck a blow in favor of those who demand an increase in the purchasing power of the German middle classes: “Europe and the G20 rely on us, considering us the engine of growth. We have to stay alert, work on our competitiveness, but it's okay that wages in Germany are now growing faster than in other European countries: these are increases that can reduce imbalances".
A politically convenient stance? Maybe: on the eve of a electoral round in some Lander, which could have repercussions on the balance of the Bundestag, supporting the requests of the metalworkers can turn out to be an opportunistically successful move.
But the counterpart Gesamtmetall, a powerful entrepreneurial organization, promptly replied that the social partners do not need government intervention. A clear invitation to politics to keep away from the perimeter of bilateral bargaining, the true pride of the country's industrial relations.
Furthermore, the German Federmeccanica has no intention of allowing adjustments to salary levels up to 6,5%, and opts for an increase in the 3% to be spread over the next few years 14 months: If German trade unions get significant wage increases, the competitiveness of the industry will be damaged.
This is exactly what entrepreneurs want to avoid, especially in key sectors of the German economy - mechanics above all - which boast record performance in terms of exports on Asian markets, markets in which Teutonic producers are rapidly gaining export shares capable of more than compensate for the lower sales on the European market, hit by the recession.
Critics of austerity are clamoring for the German authorities to adopt policies aimed at reviving i internal consumption, reducing the surplus of the trade balance by simultaneously increasing European exports to Germany, thus helping the Union's partners to emerge from the economic crisis.
Would work? Not everyone agrees: increasing the purchasing power of the middle classes could, yes, increase exports of piigs, but, since many sectors of industry - manufacturing and engineering in the first place - are still much more competitive than sister sectors in other countries, there would be a risk that the beneficiaries of excess domestic demand would be - internally - local businesses , with little benefit for the rest of Europe.
If this - according to analysts - makes reforms in the European region unavoidable in order to recover competitiveness, it must be remembered that large sectors of the German economy - in particular the tertiary sector and the professions - are, as recalled by theEconomist, widely "protected and inefficient".
An increase in internal demand in Germany, therefore, would certainly have a positive impact on the continental economy, but - the technicians recall - on the condition that the single European market is put into action, making it more open, especially where position annuities and corporate protections they are still shielded today by the protectionist policies of the members of the Union. Mario Monti has mentioned this more than once.
