Reassuring signals are coming from the German economy, but analysts continue to fear the specter of recession. In May, German business confidence returned to growth after two months of decline, with the Ifo index rose to 105,7 points, from 104,4 in April. The data is above the expectations of economists, who did not expect any change on a monthly basis.
“The recovery of the Ifo index would seem to depend on the improvement of the current scenario on the markets, also in the light of the ECB's interest rate intervention – says Vincenzo Longo of Ig -. Draghi's action seems to have restored some confidence among businesses, who are also hoping for a depreciation of the single currency that could revitalize the exports of Europe's leading economy. This morning's ifo also appears to be in line with good June GFK consumer confidence data and May PMI data released yesterday.
As for the GDP, in the first quarter Germany scored a 0,1% growth, after the -0,7% recorded at the end of 2012. The increase was limited by the slowdown in the construction sector (-2,1%), which was affected by particularly negative weather conditions. Domestic consumption (+0,8%) supported the GDP above all, while they fell export (-1,8%) And import (-2,1%). On an annual basis, however, there was a decrease of 1,4%. The German Statistical Office communicated it, confirming the first reading.
“The final estimate of Germany's first-quarter GDP confirmed that the country narrowly avoided a technical recession – commented Carsten Brzenski, economist at ING -. THE consumers they remain the silent helpers of the German economy and have become an important driver for the country's growth. However, the positive trend in consumption is only dictated by the buying frenzy and it is unlikely that Germany will continue to be a shopaholic”.
