2021 will be the year after Angela Merkel. The German Chancellor, in the saddle since 2005, was the protagonist of an entire era on the national scene, but even more so on the European and international scene: historic president of the CDU (the German "Christian Democracy"), she was the first woman ever to lead her own country but above all she was the undisputed leader of Europe for 3 decades, almost single-handedly holding up the fate of the Old Continent and tying solid relations with the United States of Barack Obama, to the point of being considered by various political analysts the "most powerful in the world". The void that you will leave as an important figure for the whole European Union has once again been understood in recent days, when you were the first and most decisive in distancing yourself from the now former US president Donald Trump, after the facts of the Capitol.
For Germany and for all of Europe, his farewell, both to the office of head of the party and to that of Chancellor (for which he is concluding his last term and will not reapply), therefore corresponds to a crossroads: from the federal elections of 26 September a completely new Chancellor will be elected, but the process actually begins this weekend, on the occasion of the Congress (streamed) of the CDU which designated Frau Angela's successor. A somewhat surprising winner was Armin Laschet, who beat the competition from Norbert Röttgen and Friedrich Merz. But the basic idea is that in the end one candidate was more or less worth the other, given that the rational and moderate style of the outgoing president deserved at least an attempt at continuity.
Armin Laschet and Norbert Röttgen were the two figures closest to the Chancellor's policy, even if their agendas in domestic politics differ slightly. Merz, on the other hand, a lawyer and former chairman of the supervisory board of BlackRock Germany, was much less radical than he might seem: he is a convinced pro-European and represents the more liberal right. However, it is not certain that the winner of the nomination will then be the Chancellor candidate in the federal elections at the end of the summer: Laschet he will still have to deal with later Markus Söder, president of Bavaria and head of the CSU, the Christian Social Union, the other party of the current majority enjoying a good moment of popularity.
A recent poll would have shown that the favorite to succeed Chancellor in the Bundeskanzleramt would be the 54-year-old Soeder. And it would be an exception, given that in 70 years the name of the candidate for Chancellor (who will emerge only in April) of the conservative camp has almost always coincided with the leader of the CDU: only in 1980 and 2002 was the CSU to send fed their own man on behalf of the entire center-right, however being defeated on both occasions. Instead, it would be the first ever for a Bavarian candidate, just in case Söder wins. In addition to him, the young Minister of Health is also carving out space as an aspirant to the throne Jens Spahn, strengthened by the management of the health emergency which evidently in Europe arouses alternating popularity (Italy) and unpopularity (France).
However, another even more innovative and therefore suggestive hypothesis is taking hold in the German political scenario: considering the unstoppable rise in recent years of the Grunens, the Greens, which are Germany's second largest party and are already part of the current coalition of government led by Angela Merkel, it cannot be excluded that the brilliant duo formed by Annalena Baerbock and Robert Habeck. Driven by the wave of the Green New Deal and the Fridays for Future, the two young ecological leaders could have the right profile: they are very popular figures, they already get along well with the political area that is about to be orphaned by Merkel, and above all they are very pragmatic and diplomatic.
Spiegel called their program “in pure Merkelian style: don't bind yourself to anything, leave every option open". Even that, why not, of leading Germany and Europe in the delicate years of Covid and the Recovery Fund.
