La Germany confirms GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2015 of 0,3% on a quarter and 1,3% on a year, with an improvement in investments but a slowdown in exports, worse than expected. This is the definitive reading of Destatis, the German statistical institute, and from the statistics it emerges that the greatest contribution came from public spending (+1% from the previous +0,5%) and investments (+1,5% from + 0,1%) while domestic demand showed a slowdown to +0,3% from the previous +0,6%. Again in the fourth quarter, exports suffered the impact of the slowdown in China and Emerging Countries, recording a contraction of 0,6% on a quarter from +0,3% the previous year, against the estimate of a drop of 0,3%. Imports increased by 0,5%.
Germany records a budget surplus of 19,4 billion in 2015, the highest value reached by the public surplus since German reunification. Destatis communicates it by explaining that the surplus, considering the Maastricht values, is +0,6% of GDP. In 2014 the surplus was 8,9 billion euros.
Despite the positive data on GDP, the Ifo business confidence climate index Germany for the month of February, stood at 105,7 points, lower than the expectations of analysts and the previous survey fixed respectively on an index equal to 106,7 and 107,3 points. What was particularly disappointing was the data on expectations, equal to 98,8 points (consensus 101,6 points). The Ifo index on current conditions instead rose to 112,9 points in February compared to 112,5 recorded in January.
Things are not much better in France, where today the Insee communicated that the French manufacturing business confidence remained stable in February, after an upward revision of the January figure. According to the numbers provided by the national statistics institute, confidence in the industrial sector remained stable at 103, above the long-term average. The median estimates of 19 economists polled by Reuters were for a reading of 102. The January figure was revised to 103 from 102 in the first reading.
