Italian commentators have described yesterday's elections in North Rhine-Westphalia as a setback primarily for Mrs Merkel. The CDU reached just 26% of the vote, finishing its race thirteen lengths behind the Social Democrats. A result that goes beyond any disastrous forecast. Already in recent days it was perceived that the gap between the two main popular parties was constantly increasing, but no one would have thought that the Christian Democrats could stop below 30%. So it happened. The verdict is bitter and heavy, but it is not a clear defeat for Frau Merkel. Elections in the German Länder are above all local in nature and it is therefore in the local electoral campaign that the causes of the collapse must be sought.
The leading candidate of the CDU, current Minister of the Environment, Norbert Röttgen, was defeated from the outset against the darling of the North Rhine and current governor Hannelore Kraft. Pulseless and slow-talking, Röttgen made several mistakes and stumbled into sensational gaffes. The idea then that, in case of defeat, he would go back to being a minister, rather than remaining in the regional parliament in opposition, led the electorate to turn their backs on him. To this we must add that the Land is a traditional red-green stronghold, as Tuscany or Emilia Romagna could be for us.
Wolfgang Clement and Peer Steinbrück, prominent personalities of the social democratic establishment, ruled in the North Rhine. The CDU managed to break through only in the years of Jürgen Rüttgers, a populist Christian Democrat who really knew how to present himself as the father of the country. Certain, the electoral debacle will inevitably also have repercussions on federal politics, reinforcing social democratic and green claims in view of the approval of the Fiscal Compact in June, which, as you know, requires the approval of two thirds of the Bundestag. Even in the Bundesrat, the chamber of regional executives, Mrs Merkel remains without a majority, having to seek compromises for the approval of numerous laws that require the green light from the two chambers. However, this does not represent an insurmountable obstacle for the Chancellor, who has always been used to making compromise a strategy to increase her consensus.
Even the advance of the liberals, apparently emerging from the crisis that engulfed them two and a half years ago, is unable to undermine Mrs Merkel's power in the cabinet. The FDP achieved 8,5% of the vote only because, just like in Schleswig, it nominated another of its strongmen. At the federal level, it remains a torn party, unable to impose itself and dictate the agenda to the Chancellor. The social democratic exploit should also not be overemphasized. The leap forward of the SPD is mainly due to the popularity of Hannelore Kraft (whom many now see as a possible candidate for the Chancellorship for 2013) and not to a redemption by a party that throughout Germany continues to remain at least five points behind compared to the CDU.
