Germany is among the European countries that went through the Great Recession with limited negative repercussions (growth rates always positive except in 2009). In recent years, the GDP trend has hovered around 1,5% y/y, a trend that should continue in 2016 thanks to an increase in public spending (welcoming policies for refugees) and private consumption, favored by rising incomes and low unemployment.
The macroeconomic context also facilitated the improvement of German household balance sheets: in the first quarter of this year, financial assets exceeded 5.500 billion (+2,1% y/y); liabilities, up by 2,5% (to 1.628 billion), continue to decrease both with respect to GDP (54% in 2015, 68% ten years earlier) and disposable income (82% in 2015, 98% in 2005) .
The financial portfolio is historically not very diversified: in the first quarter of 2016, 39% was allocated to deposits, 37% to insurance and pension plans, while a fifth of saved resources was reserved for equity investments. The low yield (if not negative) of liquid assets does not seem to influence the choice of assets which, on the other hand, would above all be affected by disposable income, wealth, demographic factors and a consolidated risk aversion.
Net wealth remains particularly concentrated: almost 60% is in the hands of the 10% of the wealthiest families and about three-quarters of families are positioned below the average net amount (€214 thousand). Real estate and equity securities are held mainly by the wealthiest families whose assets are currently favored by the increase in house prices and by the stability of that of the stock markets.
Indebtedness is limited to 45% of households, but only 17% have mortgage debts, a figure that reflects the low frequency of households owning their residence property (44%). The acceleration of mortgage disbursements and real estate prices suggest that these levels could increase in the near future.
