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Germany: PMI manufacturing index bucking the trend, at its lowest since 2009

The data showing the trend of the German manufacturing sector fell to 45 points in May, against expectations which estimated an increase to 47 - It is the sign of a contraction in the industry - The Ifo index also falls well beyond expectations , which measures business confidence – GDP estimates confirmed: +0,5% in the first quarter.

Germany: PMI manufacturing index bucking the trend, at its lowest since 2009

Manufacturing is no longer able to pull Germany. This is what emerges from the latest surveys on the German PMI index, which measures the trend of the manufacturing sector. In May the Purchasing managers index related to the sector fell to 45 points from 46,2 in April, in a countertrend to expectations which predicted an increase to 47 points. Below the threshold of 50 points we slip into contraction. The decline occurred at the fastest pace since June 2009. New orders and exports are at their lowest for the year.  

On the other hand, the activity of the tertiary sector was stable, grew at the same rate as last month to 52,2. However the good performance of services failed to balance weakness in manufacturing: the composite index, which brings together manufacturing and services, for the first time in six months, is entered the field of contraction with 49,6 points from 50,5 in April.

The confidence climate of German companies also collapsed more than expected. In May, the index elaborated by the study centre I fo recorded a decline to 106,9 points, from 109,9 points in April. This is the first drop since November 2011. Analysts had expected a drop to 109,5 points, so the drop, although in line with expectations, was much worse.

Berlin has also confirmed the data of GDP of the first quarter of 2012. The German economy, in the first three months, grew by 0,5% compared to the last quarter of 2011, and by 1,7% year on year. The Federal Statistical Office also underlined Germany's potential vulnerability to the eurozone crisis. 

Also in the first quarter exports grew by 1,7% (seasonally adjusted figure), recovering after the 1,5% drop in the fourth quarter of 2011. On a quarterly basis, private consumption also increased by 0,4%.

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