In France and Germany, optimism is no longer at home, at least according to the respective statistical institutes. French consumer confidence remains unchanged in September on the 86 points recorded in August: the indicator is in line with expectations, but remains well below the long-term average (100 points), showing how households continue to be pessimistic and the perception they have of their future and of the country does not stop getting worse, albeit slowly.
In Germany, on the other hand, consumer confidence falls again in October, and more than expected. The data processed by Gfk shows a drop to 8,3 points, from 8,6 in September, and against expectations for a more contained drop to 8,5.
"The ongoing geopolitical tensions, which now according to consumers also threaten to affect the German economy, led to a decline in optimism in September," the institute commented in a note, specifying that all indicators fell between six and seven points.
A severe slowdown was recorded in expectations for the economy, with the component dropping from 10,4 points in August to 4,4 points in September. The German economy saw its GDP decrease by 0,2% in the second quarter compared to the first and "for the third quarter, a stagnation and at best a marginal increase in GDP is expected", underlines Gfk.
Revenue expectations, Gfk points out, remain at a high level, but fell from 50,1 points to 43,4 points between August and September. As for purchase intentions, they went from 49,3 to 42,5 points. As a result, the institute expects a further drop in consumer confidence in October.
“Above all, the international crisis now seems to be weighing on consumer confidence, which is showing the first signs of anxiety – explains Gfk -. If the situation were to worsen, we cannot exclude that the context, so far excellent in Germany, will deteriorate” warns the institute, noting how private consumption could therefore lose its role as the engine of growth in Germany.
