Although politicians of one or another camp want to turn them into a testing ground for the federal elections on 22 September next, the elections to be held on Sunday in Lower Saxony will be above all a regional appointment. In the Land which extends its offshoots up to Hamburg and is among the most economically prosperous regions of the whole of Germany, there are large companies such as Volkswagen, Continental, Tui and Salzgitter as well as good-level universities such as those of Göttingen, Hannover and Osnabrück.
Labor policies and academic policies are therefore at the center of the electoral programs of the various contenders. In particular, the SPD hopes to oust the Christian Democrat of Scottish origin David McAllister from the governor's seat, promising to abolish university fees (Studiengebühren), which in Germany are in force only in some Länder. If on infrastructures and transport they seem to be closer to the CDU, the Social Democrats do not fail to wink at their traditional allies, the Greens, on the matter of nuclear waste. In fact, in the Land there is the temporary deposit of Gorleben, which at no price, according to the Social Democrats, will have to become the definitive location for storage. The fact remains that, however, Stephan Weil, 54-year-old mayor of Hanover and candidate for governor of the SPD, belongs to the right-wing current of the party (among his advisers most listened to there is also the ex-chancellor Gerhard Schröder who was governor from 1990 to 1998) and therefore does not exclude the formation of a Große Koalition, if the numbers are not enough for a red-green alliance.
In recent weeks, thanks to the collapse in the polls at the federal level, even in Lower Saxony the SPD has struggled to chase after its Christian Democrat opponents. The press campaign that invested the candidate for Chancellor Peer Steinbrück for his millionaire fees and his lobbyist activities could not fail to affect the popularity of the SPD at the local level. According to the latest poll of 10 January, the Cdu would be in the lead with about 41% of the votes, detaching the Social Democrats by a good eight points, still at 33%. With the Greens at 13% and the FDP Liberals suddenly jumping to 5%, there wouldn't be much they could do. The first party chooses who to ally with and, in this case, it would naturally do so with its traditional allies, the liberals. It all depends on whether Economy Minister Philipp Rösler's party manages to return to the regional parliament. Until a few days ago it seemed like an impossible mission. The liberals, deeply divided internally, even at the regional level, have long been stable at around 3%, a threshold at which Pirati and Die Linke, the extreme left, also find themselves tied.
No help to the Liberals has so far come from the Christian Democrat allies of President McAllister, who seems quite sure he can continue to govern, now over the hangover from the Wulff affair. In fact, the scandal that overwhelmed the ex-President of the Republic Christian Wulff last year started from the Landtag of Lower Saxony, forcing him to resign. When he was president of the Land, Wulff received a loan of 500.000 from a businessman friend in order to be able to buy his country house. It is not yet clear if and how he ever returned the favor. The fact remains that with the Wulff affair the CDU lost ground, only to recover it thanks to the popularity of David McAllister, who took over from Wulff after his election as President of the Republic. However, the vote in Lower Saxony risks having serious repercussions in Berlin as well. In fact, if the Christian Democrats were to leave the government to the red-green coalition, in the Bundesrat, the chamber of regional executives, there would henceforth be a social democratic-environmental majority. For Mrs Merkel, despite her strong rise in the polls, it would certainly not be a good way to start 2013.
